Friday, November 6, 2009

Update -- Jermaine Dye is a Free Agent

Here's a quick, non-"Fixing the Mets" note on something I read this morning. The Chicago White Sox declined the $12 million 2010 option for slugging LF Jermaine Dye, opting instead to buy out the contract for $950,000. 

Dye is an interesting name to be thrown into the LF hat for the Mets. He's always been a good power bat, hitting 25+ HRs in each of the last 5 seasons. I'm not sure what he'll command as a free agent, but it will most certainly be less (both in dollars and years) than Holliday and Bay. For that reason alone, I'd hope Omar at least considers him.

The big issue is that Dye's not a speedster, which raises the question about his ability to play LF in spacious CitiField. He's a statistically sound fielder -- in 2009, he had a .980 FLD% (5 errors in 247 attempts) along with 9 assists -- but stats don't show how many fly balls in the gap dropped in as doubles.

I'll have the next "Fixing the Mets" post up this weekend.

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Fixing the Mets - STEP FIVE (The 'Pen)

STEP FIVE: The 'Pen

With the exception of a few minor changes, I’d leave the bullpen intact entering 2010. Brian Stokes and Pedro Feliciano had excellent years (2-4, 45 Ks, 3.97 ERA, 70.1 IP and 6-4, 59 Ks, 3.03 ERA, 59.1 IP, respectively), and Feliciano broke the team record for appearances in a season, with 87 in 2009. He broke his own record of 86, which he set in 2008.

Sean Green was our new Aaron Heilman – the go to guy when we want to be sure something goes wrong, like allowing a game-ending, bases-loaded walk in Philly earlier this year. His line is unimpressive (1-4, 54 Ks, 4.52 ERA, 69.2 IP). And despite all this, he’s pitched effectively enough at times to warrant another shot.

Bobby Parnell should remain a reliever. The argument I’ll use to make my case is right across town – Joba Chamberlain had electric stuff as a reliever, but only average stuff as a starter. It's a no brainer to me. Parnell belongs in the 'Pen. When things were “right” in 2009, Parnell was pitching scoreless 6th and 7th innings. And if we pay close attention to his numbers as a starter, it's quite clear that it's not going to work out for him there. In 8 games started, he posted on 2 quality starts (with 1-5 record) and averaged only 4.5 innings per start. 'Nuff said.

Nelson Figueroa has done a fine enough job in spot starts in 2009 to earn a spot as a long reliever in 2010, punctuated with his complete game shutout against The ‘Stros (sorry Dan) in the last game of the season. And although the same could be said for the way Tim Redding pitched down the stretch, there's something about Figgy that I really like. He's a Brooklyn native who's done just fine when needed him the past two seasons, and his numbers are pretty consistent (2009: 3-8, 59 Ks, 4.09 ERA, 70.1 IP; 2008: 3-3, 36 Ks, 4.57 ERA, 45.1 IP).

NOTE—Figgy’s 8 losses aren’t a good way to evaluate him as a pitcher. He posted 5 quality starts and pitched well enough to earn a W or at least a no decision.

We don’t need Redding if we keep Figgy, so he can be given his walking papers. The Mets got what they (should've) expected out of him (3-6, 76 Ks, 5.10 ERA, 120 IP). Redding was a guy who intrigued me when they announced his signing. I thought he'd be a very serviceable #5 starter - but that was before I knew that Ollie would be back, and that Pelf would struggle and that Maine and Johan would get hurt. Redding ended up missing the first 6 weeks of the season, and being only moderately effective when he did pitch.

Despite posting decent numbers, we should part ways with Ken Takahashi (0-1, 23 Ks, 2.96 ERA, 27.1 IP) and Elmer Dessens (0-0, 14 Ks, 3.31 ERA, 32.2 IP).

UPDATE 10/20 – The Mets released Takahashi.

On the Takahashi front, what the hell was that, anyway? The Mets passed on established LHRPs like Joe Beimel and Will Ohman in the off-season because “Sean Green was such an effective cross-over reliever," and yet Ken Takahashi ended up in our bullpen pitching in a big game in Philly? Remember the game… He gave up an extra inning HR to Raul IbaƱez. Let's not make this mistake again. Beimel (1-6, 35 Ks, 3.58 ERA, 55.1 IP) will be a free agent in 2010. Ignore his 2009 record, because he’s very good and there's no rule that says you can't have two LHRPs in the same bullpen.

Pat Misch was a good pick-up, and should stay on board either in competition with Figgy as a long reliever/spot starter, or start the year in AAA and be ready to fill in when needed. Ironically enough, the two guys I’m labeling as long relievers/minor leaguers (Misch and Figgy) are the only two to post complete game shutouts for the 2009 Mets. That’s proof positive that this was a miserable year!!

As an aisde, we made a huge mistake cutting Darren O'Day earlier this year. Yeah, remember him? He pitched in all of 4 games with the Mets, and despite not giving up an earned run, he was released and claimed by Texas. And how'd he do with The Rangers? 2-1, 56 Ks, 1.84 ERA and 58.2 IP. He certainly fared better than Takahashi and Green.

I'd make a strong attempt to bring J.J. Putz back as the setup man. We got next to nothing out of him in 2009, due to injury. The problem is that he has a $9.15 million club option with a $1 million buyout. $9 million is certainly too much to pay a setup man, so I'm hoping the Mets can offer him the buyout for $1 million and re-sign him to an incentive-laden one-year deal. It'd be a shame if Putz passes, because I don't know if can reliably lean on Stokes and/or Parnell to share the setup role.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention K-Rod’s disappointing second half. It seemed to me like his season went down the shitter when Castillo dropped the A-Rod pop fly in Yankee Stadium. Frankie was untouchable prior to that game, which marked the first blown save in 21 or 22 opportunities in 2009. He ended up blowing 6 more after that Friday in June, and finished with one of his worst statistical years of his career (3-6, 73 Ks, 3.71 ERA, 68 IP).

A lot of people have argued that K-Rod’s poor performance was because he wasn’t used as often as he was used in the past. I was in that camp for while, but after I did some research, I found that the argument is just not sound. Frankie's IP last year, when he set the Major League Saves Record, were 68.1, In 2007 his IP were 67.1 and in 2006 his IP were 73.0. In fact, he had 70 appearances this year, second most in his career.

I’m hoping his poor second half was due to the fact that he was on this miserably uncompetitive team, and that he returns to form in 2010.

Coming up is STEP SIX... The Bench.