The Braves sign Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito. The Phillies sign Placido Polanco and trade for Roy Halladay. The Yankees sign Curtis Granderson. The Red Sox sign John Lackey and Mike Cameron, and are making an effort to trade for Adrian Gonzalez.
How do The Mets respond? By signing 30-year old Japanese relief pitcher Ryota Igarashi, that's how.
Omar expects to hear from Jason Bay today, and I've heard the Mets are searching through the all-you-can-eat buffets in Bengie Molina's native Puerto Rico to find him and get an answer from him.
All kidding aside, I've reached a point where I think it's okay if Omar doesn't sign either guy. It'd be a shame, but with the pitching staff in its current state, I honestly don't think either acquisition will be enough of difference maker.
For Bay, although I like him a lot, committing that kind of money to a marginal defensive player a year before Carl Crawford will be a free agent is a huge mistake. As I've evidenced several times before, Crawford is a perfect fit for The Mets.
For Molina, he's now asking for a 3-year, $20MM contract. Laughable, I say!! I'm wondering which other teams are involved in signing Molina, and which ones are offering more than the Mets original 2-year, $10MM contract? I don't want Molina at all, and it'll only make me more upset if he gets a 3-year deal!
Anyway, my point is that the 2010-2011 free agent class features a much better group of pitchers and outfielders. Brian Cashman had the right idea when he passed on Johan in 2007-2008, because he signed CC, AJ and Tex in 2008-2009 and the rest is history. Unfortunately for Omar, if the Mets have a bad showing in 2010, he may not have the chance to pull a Cashman and redeem himself.
And this is why I'm seriously concerned. Omar, in a effort to retain his job, might make a deal for the sake of making a deal (bidding against himself for Bay and/or Molina). I just hope whatever he does this year doesn't affect what the team can do next year, because let's face it... the 2010 Mets are not a "Win Now" team.
Friday, December 18, 2009
Monday, December 14, 2009
Is it already over?
Today is a great day to be a Mets fan. We're going to find out over the next 72 hours whether Jason Bay accepts our 4-year, $65 million offer. In the meantime, John Lackey has signed with Boston (5-years $85 million) and ... wait for it ... wait for it ...
The Toronto Blue Jays have agreed, in principle, to send Roy Halladay to Philadelphia as part of a three-team trade that also involves The Phillies moving Cliff Lee to Seattle.
Don't worry... Bengie Molina will be our catcher, so naturally, our pitching staff won't need improvements at all. Amidst the mediocrity that is our starting pitchers not name Santana lies a full-fledged #2.
Is it 2011 yet?
The Toronto Blue Jays have agreed, in principle, to send Roy Halladay to Philadelphia as part of a three-team trade that also involves The Phillies moving Cliff Lee to Seattle.
Don't worry... Bengie Molina will be our catcher, so naturally, our pitching staff won't need improvements at all. Amidst the mediocrity that is our starting pitchers not name Santana lies a full-fledged #2.
Is it 2011 yet?
Friday, December 11, 2009
Putz Me Down!
I'm really bummed to see that J.J. Putz has signed with The Chicago White Sox. Last year, after the Mets announced the trade that brought Putz and Sean Green to New York, I was so looking forward to the concept of two lights-out relievers pitching in the 8th and 9th innings.
As we all know, Putz was never able to fill that role -- due in part to injury and perhaps in part because he wanted to close. Regardless, I thought it would've been a wise choice for the Mets to try to bring J.J. back on an incentive-laden one-year contract to act as a setup man for K-Rod and to basically audition himself to be a closer again in 2011.
Now that Putz has signed with Chicago, my fantasy of the one-two punch in the bullpen is down the toilet. Who is our setup man now? Pedro Feliciano? Bobby Parnell?
Is this just more bad luck for the Mets? Takashi Saito went from saving 40+ games for the Dodgers in 2007 and 2008 to being a setup man for The Boston Red Sox in 2009, and he pitched beautifully there. Now Saito is in Atlanta, acting as the setup man to Billy Wagner. Could it be that the Braves will successfully implement the lights-out 8th-9th bridge that we aimed at in 2009? And how painful will it be to see Wags closing things out for them?
On the bright side, we did make an encouraging offer to sign Jason Bay -- 4 years, $65 million. Not an overblown offer at all. Shocking for Omar. Granted I'd rather have seen an offer made for John Lackey, but I can't have everything.
And now to bring things down a notch again, it's being reported that The Phuckin' Fightins are the front-runners to obtain Roy Halladay. I'm not even kidding when I say I'll kill myself if he's the ace of that staff and Cliff Lee is their #2.
As we all know, Putz was never able to fill that role -- due in part to injury and perhaps in part because he wanted to close. Regardless, I thought it would've been a wise choice for the Mets to try to bring J.J. back on an incentive-laden one-year contract to act as a setup man for K-Rod and to basically audition himself to be a closer again in 2011.
Now that Putz has signed with Chicago, my fantasy of the one-two punch in the bullpen is down the toilet. Who is our setup man now? Pedro Feliciano? Bobby Parnell?
Is this just more bad luck for the Mets? Takashi Saito went from saving 40+ games for the Dodgers in 2007 and 2008 to being a setup man for The Boston Red Sox in 2009, and he pitched beautifully there. Now Saito is in Atlanta, acting as the setup man to Billy Wagner. Could it be that the Braves will successfully implement the lights-out 8th-9th bridge that we aimed at in 2009? And how painful will it be to see Wags closing things out for them?
On the bright side, we did make an encouraging offer to sign Jason Bay -- 4 years, $65 million. Not an overblown offer at all. Shocking for Omar. Granted I'd rather have seen an offer made for John Lackey, but I can't have everything.
And now to bring things down a notch again, it's being reported that The Phuckin' Fightins are the front-runners to obtain Roy Halladay. I'm not even kidding when I say I'll kill myself if he's the ace of that staff and Cliff Lee is their #2.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Being Ahead of the Curve...
I'm not one to brag, but anybody within earshot of me after the 2006 season heard me bitching about the fact that the Mets didn't bring back Chad Bradford and Darren Oliver. Both were replaced, the former by Joe Smith and the latter by Scott Schoeneweis. How'd that work out for us?
On MetsBlog.com this morning, there's an interesting snippet that suggests the Mets are going to be in on signing Darren Oliver. I wonder if they'd held onto him in 2007, 2008 and 2009, if they'd be one of five teams in on him right now. I also wonder how much better the 2007 and 2008 bullpens would've been...
Another good, encouraging sign from MetsBlog this morning is that there are reports that suggest the Mets will start to aggressively pursue John Lackey. It's about frickin' time is all I have to say. The guy's the best free agent pitcher on the market by leaps and bounds, and now that guys like Tim Hudson and Randy Wolf have 3-year deals, Lackey asking for 5 doesn't seem that unreasonable. Oh and the guy's a bulldog and would be a perfect #2 behind Johan.
I thought Bengie Molina would be the big signing for the Mets at the Winter Meetings... perhaps Omar will shock us and and it'll be John Lackey -- 5 years, $90 million. Merry Christmas to us, if that's the case.
On MetsBlog.com this morning, there's an interesting snippet that suggests the Mets are going to be in on signing Darren Oliver. I wonder if they'd held onto him in 2007, 2008 and 2009, if they'd be one of five teams in on him right now. I also wonder how much better the 2007 and 2008 bullpens would've been...
Another good, encouraging sign from MetsBlog this morning is that there are reports that suggest the Mets will start to aggressively pursue John Lackey. It's about frickin' time is all I have to say. The guy's the best free agent pitcher on the market by leaps and bounds, and now that guys like Tim Hudson and Randy Wolf have 3-year deals, Lackey asking for 5 doesn't seem that unreasonable. Oh and the guy's a bulldog and would be a perfect #2 behind Johan.
I thought Bengie Molina would be the big signing for the Mets at the Winter Meetings... perhaps Omar will shock us and and it'll be John Lackey -- 5 years, $90 million. Merry Christmas to us, if that's the case.
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Catching up
Ah the Winter Meetings are in full swing, which means Omar Minaya is busy monitoring all the aging, over-priced free agents. Since my last post, The Phillies have improved (signing Placido Polanco to play 3B) and The Braves have REALLY improved (signing Billy Wagner to close and Takashi Saito to setup, while looking to resign Mike Gonzalez and/or Rafael Soriano). Even The Nats have improved (signing Pudge Rodriguez to catch and Brian Bruney to be a dick in Washington instead of New York).
The Mets have improved, too. Well, not really. We've spent $3.5 million on backup players Alex Cora, Chris Coste and Henry Blanco. From what I've read, Blanco is a terrific defensive catcher, which is enough for me to say he should platoon with Omir Santos and we should skip out on the Bengie Molina experiment.
Unfortunately, it's just not like Omar to avoid signing an older player with whom he's always been infatuated. It's reported that Minaya offered Molina a 3-year deal before picking up Paul LoDuca after the 2005 season. I don't care how many HRs Molina hit in 2009... the guy is 36 and is already slower than molasses! I'd pay money to see a foot race between him and former goggle-wearing Met C/1B Jason Phillips.
I've heard reports of how well Molina handles a pitching staff. I can't argue against that, as San Francisco's starters have been quite good (back-to-back Cy Young seasons for Lincecum). Still, Molina goes completely against (what should be) the team's "pitching/speed/defense" philosophy. I don't want him for 3 years. Or for 2 years. Or for 1 year. I say NO to Bengie Mo!!!
My guess is that Omar makes some big splash before the end of the week, and my guess is that the big splash is Molina for 2 years and $12 million.
UPDATE - I'm thinking more about this whole "We need a catcher who can handle a pitching staff" argument the Mets are making right now, and I'm getting more and more nervous. It seems to me like they're posturing to send out the same exact rotation in 2010, save for the 5th spot. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the very definition of insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Oh but there's a new catcher, and as a result, Ollie Perez will be able to throw strikes! And Mike Pelfrey won't have the yips any more! Give me a break...
The Mets have improved, too. Well, not really. We've spent $3.5 million on backup players Alex Cora, Chris Coste and Henry Blanco. From what I've read, Blanco is a terrific defensive catcher, which is enough for me to say he should platoon with Omir Santos and we should skip out on the Bengie Molina experiment.
Unfortunately, it's just not like Omar to avoid signing an older player with whom he's always been infatuated. It's reported that Minaya offered Molina a 3-year deal before picking up Paul LoDuca after the 2005 season. I don't care how many HRs Molina hit in 2009... the guy is 36 and is already slower than molasses! I'd pay money to see a foot race between him and former goggle-wearing Met C/1B Jason Phillips.
I've heard reports of how well Molina handles a pitching staff. I can't argue against that, as San Francisco's starters have been quite good (back-to-back Cy Young seasons for Lincecum). Still, Molina goes completely against (what should be) the team's "pitching/speed/defense" philosophy. I don't want him for 3 years. Or for 2 years. Or for 1 year. I say NO to Bengie Mo!!!
My guess is that Omar makes some big splash before the end of the week, and my guess is that the big splash is Molina for 2 years and $12 million.
UPDATE - I'm thinking more about this whole "We need a catcher who can handle a pitching staff" argument the Mets are making right now, and I'm getting more and more nervous. It seems to me like they're posturing to send out the same exact rotation in 2010, save for the 5th spot. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the very definition of insanity: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Oh but there's a new catcher, and as a result, Ollie Perez will be able to throw strikes! And Mike Pelfrey won't have the yips any more! Give me a break...
Monday, November 30, 2009
Getting started...
Earlier today, the Mets made two minor signings. One I'm okay with. The other, not so much.
The Mets brought back Alex Cora today on a 1-year, $2 million deal with a vesting 2011 club option. Let me reiterate what I've said many times before about Alex Cora. I liked what he did for The Mets in 2009. He plays the game the right way, is a great club house presence, and he proved to be an absolute warrior playing with TWO messed up thumbs. Is he worth $2 million? I don't think he is. He's a backup middle IF, and despite what I just said, he's an average player on his best day.
As Jon Heyman put it, Cora will make "50 grand for ballplaying and $1.95 mil for being a helluva nice guy." I know what Heyman is saying, but I think his assessment is a bit unfair. I would've preferred he make $1 million a year at the most.
Does Cora fit into my plan? Not exactly, and not because I think he doesn't fit on the team. He's an adequate backup. I'm just not all about paying millions of dollars to a backup.
The second move made today was the signing of former Phillies backup catcher Chris Coste. I remember him as the pasty white bastard who always seemed to appear as a pinch hitter and come up big against the Mets in 2007 and 2008. He split time between Philly and Houston in 2009, posting a .224 batting average. Regardless, I'm fine with this move.
From what I've read about Omar Minaya, he likes to do his sort of thing before the winter meetings. The thought here is that Minaya will have a veteran catcher at his disposal if he fails to sign a free agent. I'm hoping Omar signs Rod Barajas, but I'm hoping even more that he doesn't fall into the trap that is Bengie Molina. I'm just not a fan of bringing in a 36-year old catcher who's slow as molasses. Then again, Chris Coste is 36, so color me a hypocrit...
The Mets brought back Alex Cora today on a 1-year, $2 million deal with a vesting 2011 club option. Let me reiterate what I've said many times before about Alex Cora. I liked what he did for The Mets in 2009. He plays the game the right way, is a great club house presence, and he proved to be an absolute warrior playing with TWO messed up thumbs. Is he worth $2 million? I don't think he is. He's a backup middle IF, and despite what I just said, he's an average player on his best day.
As Jon Heyman put it, Cora will make "50 grand for ballplaying and $1.95 mil for being a helluva nice guy." I know what Heyman is saying, but I think his assessment is a bit unfair. I would've preferred he make $1 million a year at the most.
Does Cora fit into my plan? Not exactly, and not because I think he doesn't fit on the team. He's an adequate backup. I'm just not all about paying millions of dollars to a backup.
The second move made today was the signing of former Phillies backup catcher Chris Coste. I remember him as the pasty white bastard who always seemed to appear as a pinch hitter and come up big against the Mets in 2007 and 2008. He split time between Philly and Houston in 2009, posting a .224 batting average. Regardless, I'm fine with this move.
From what I've read about Omar Minaya, he likes to do his sort of thing before the winter meetings. The thought here is that Minaya will have a veteran catcher at his disposal if he fails to sign a free agent. I'm hoping Omar signs Rod Barajas, but I'm hoping even more that he doesn't fall into the trap that is Bengie Molina. I'm just not a fan of bringing in a 36-year old catcher who's slow as molasses. Then again, Chris Coste is 36, so color me a hypocrit...
Friday, November 13, 2009
Fixing the Mets - CONCLUSION
CONCLUSION
With the right additions, I firmly believe that the 2010 Mets can compete with any team in the National League. I’ve outlined several options the Mets can act upon to greatly improve the team. My best and most realistic suggestions would have the team looking like this:
STARTING LINEUP
1 – Jose Reyes, SS
2 – Carl Crawford, LF
3 – Orlando Hudson, 2B
4 – Carlos Beltran, CF
5 – David Wright, 3B
6 – Jeff Francoeur, RF
7 – Daniel Murphy, 1B
8 – Rod Barajas, C
The biggest thing missing from this lineup is power. But is that a bad thing? Not necessarily. CitiField is the kind of park where it’s possible to score runs without the benefit of the long ball. I think this lineup has that potential. Reyes and Crawford atop the lineup will be a top-notch combo and will wreak havoc on the base paths. Hudson, Beltran and Wright can drive them in. Sounds good to me.
UPDATE: 11/13 - My post from this morning (which was supposed to be published 2 days ago) suggests that the Mets get Vernon Wells and Roy Halladay in the same deal. If that happens, we don't get Carl Crawford, so I'll slot Hudson in the 2 hole, Wright in the 3 hole, Beltran cleaning up and Wells in the 5 hole.
STARTING ROTATION
1 – Johan Santana
2 – Roy Halladay
3 – Mike Pelfrey
4 – Oliver Perez
5 – John Maine
Halladay and Santana could potentially combine to win 50 games. Throw in 10 from each of the others and that’s an 80-win season. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities.
Pelf and Ollie could switch spots in the rotation, and Maine isn't a guaranteed #5. We've got to stop kidding ourselves about all the "potential" surrounding our rotation. Adding Doc puts Pelf, Ollie and Maine is realistic positions.
UPDATE: 11/13 - My post from this morning also suggests that we would trade away either Maine or Pelfrey to get Halladay and Wells from Toronto. If that's the case, I'd insert Jon Niese as the #5 starter, and either Pelfrey #3 and Ollie #4 or Ollie #3 and Maine #4.
BULLPEN
Francisco Rodriguez, CP
JJ Putz, SU
Pedro Feliciano, LHP
Brian Stokes, RHP
Bobby Parnell, RHP
Shawn Green, RHP
Joe Beimel, LHP
Nelson Figueroa/Pat Misch
I still say that a healthy Putz setting up for a motivated K-Rod will make a terrific 8th/9th inning tandem. Halladay will provide some much needed relief for when the ‘pen has to pick up the pieces when “Bad Ollie” rears his ugly head.
Adding Biemel might make Green expendable, which would free up another spot on the bench. Regardless, I think this is a very solid bullpen.
BENCH
Omir Santos, C
Angel Pagan, OF
Fernando Tatis, OF/1B/3B
Wilson Valdez, 2B/SS
Cory Sullivan, OF
If we remove a bullpen arm, we can add another guy to the bench. I’m thinking Chris Carter or another Omar scrap heap pickup guy that he overpays. Regardless, if the bench is the weakest part of the team, you won’t hear any complaints from me!
That's it. That's my plan. It's a plan for fixing The Mets now without completely abandoning the future. It leaves the door wide open for Ike Davis in 2010, Josh Thole in 2011 and Fernando Martinez in ... well, sometime in the next 10-15 years. I know that it's likely that one (or more) of these guys end up in a package for Doc Halladay, but I'm okay with that. As I said in the very beginning, without solid pitching WE CANNOT COMPETE!!
With the right additions, I firmly believe that the 2010 Mets can compete with any team in the National League. I’ve outlined several options the Mets can act upon to greatly improve the team. My best and most realistic suggestions would have the team looking like this:
STARTING LINEUP
1 – Jose Reyes, SS
2 – Carl Crawford, LF
3 – Orlando Hudson, 2B
4 – Carlos Beltran, CF
5 – David Wright, 3B
6 – Jeff Francoeur, RF
7 – Daniel Murphy, 1B
8 – Rod Barajas, C
The biggest thing missing from this lineup is power. But is that a bad thing? Not necessarily. CitiField is the kind of park where it’s possible to score runs without the benefit of the long ball. I think this lineup has that potential. Reyes and Crawford atop the lineup will be a top-notch combo and will wreak havoc on the base paths. Hudson, Beltran and Wright can drive them in. Sounds good to me.
UPDATE: 11/13 - My post from this morning (which was supposed to be published 2 days ago) suggests that the Mets get Vernon Wells and Roy Halladay in the same deal. If that happens, we don't get Carl Crawford, so I'll slot Hudson in the 2 hole, Wright in the 3 hole, Beltran cleaning up and Wells in the 5 hole.
STARTING ROTATION
1 – Johan Santana
2 – Roy Halladay
3 – Mike Pelfrey
4 – Oliver Perez
5 – John Maine
Halladay and Santana could potentially combine to win 50 games. Throw in 10 from each of the others and that’s an 80-win season. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities.
Pelf and Ollie could switch spots in the rotation, and Maine isn't a guaranteed #5. We've got to stop kidding ourselves about all the "potential" surrounding our rotation. Adding Doc puts Pelf, Ollie and Maine is realistic positions.
UPDATE: 11/13 - My post from this morning also suggests that we would trade away either Maine or Pelfrey to get Halladay and Wells from Toronto. If that's the case, I'd insert Jon Niese as the #5 starter, and either Pelfrey #3 and Ollie #4 or Ollie #3 and Maine #4.
BULLPEN
Francisco Rodriguez, CP
JJ Putz, SU
Pedro Feliciano, LHP
Brian Stokes, RHP
Bobby Parnell, RHP
Shawn Green, RHP
Joe Beimel, LHP
Nelson Figueroa/Pat Misch
I still say that a healthy Putz setting up for a motivated K-Rod will make a terrific 8th/9th inning tandem. Halladay will provide some much needed relief for when the ‘pen has to pick up the pieces when “Bad Ollie” rears his ugly head.
Adding Biemel might make Green expendable, which would free up another spot on the bench. Regardless, I think this is a very solid bullpen.
BENCH
Omir Santos, C
Angel Pagan, OF
Fernando Tatis, OF/1B/3B
Wilson Valdez, 2B/SS
Cory Sullivan, OF
If we remove a bullpen arm, we can add another guy to the bench. I’m thinking Chris Carter or another Omar scrap heap pickup guy that he overpays. Regardless, if the bench is the weakest part of the team, you won’t hear any complaints from me!
That's it. That's my plan. It's a plan for fixing The Mets now without completely abandoning the future. It leaves the door wide open for Ike Davis in 2010, Josh Thole in 2011 and Fernando Martinez in ... well, sometime in the next 10-15 years. I know that it's likely that one (or more) of these guys end up in a package for Doc Halladay, but I'm okay with that. As I said in the very beginning, without solid pitching WE CANNOT COMPETE!!
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
$$$$$ - We got it, let's use it.
Jerry Crasnick wrote a fantastic article on ESPN.com yesterday, reporting on how GMs and other baseball bigwigs feel about a variety of topics - from Matt Holliday to Instant Replay.
One question caught my eye, and it asked which player was more difficult to trade: Milton Bradley or Vernon Wells? All of the 20 anonymous GMs answered Wells.
As Crasnick points out, it's got nothing to do with Wells being a bad guy. In fact, most would argue that Milton Bradley is the biggest dick playing baseball today. He can't get along with anyone on any team. No, if it was a personality contest, Wells would win by a landslide.
The GMs pick Vernon Wells because of his contract. He'll make $12.5 million in 2010, followed by $23 million in 2011 and $21 million in 2012, 2013 and 2014. Wells signed this ludicrous contract after a career year in 2006, and then-GM J.P. Riccardi felt it would be wise to lock him up long-term. He locked him up, all right.
Wells will be nearly impossible to move, because of his less than stellar performance (.260, 15 HRs, 66 RBIs in 2009) and the money he's owed. Riccardi's poor decision to sign Wells might be a way for The Mets to get Roy Halladay.
I gushed about him in "Fixing the Mets" Step Three. You might say I have a man-crush on him. Well so be it. I do. I have a man-crush on Doc Halladay. The guy's a machine. He's a perennial Cy Young candidate. And he throws CGs every other start! Oh and did I mention that he'll be a free agent after 2010?
That's right, Halladay will be a free agent after 2010, and Toronto won't be able to afford his contract demands. He's earned a payday from somebody, and it's not likely to be The Blue Jays. He's got Yankees written all over him, but Toronto isn't going to want to have to face him 3 or 4 times a year. I expect Toronto to trade Halladay either this winter or at the deadline this year, so they can maximize his value with a slew of prospects. The problem with that theory is that I don't believe the Mets have the prospects to land him.
This is why we need to make it about more than just prospects... We need to make it about giving Toronto a bail out from the bad debt they have in Vernon Wells. I propose a modest package of minor league talent and perhaps a Mike Pelfrey or John Maine in exchange for Halladay and Wells... and we have to pay a good portion of Wells' contract.
The rotation would be fortified with the best 1-2 punch in baseball, and Wells is an above-average defender and would be a serviceable LF. Who knows... perhaps a change of scenery might be all he needs to get back to the form he showed in 2006.
If we can afford to make this offer, we'd definitely be a team built to win now. Like right now. Like 2010. And 2011. And maybe even 2012.
The conclusion of "Fixing the Mets" will be up later today...
One question caught my eye, and it asked which player was more difficult to trade: Milton Bradley or Vernon Wells? All of the 20 anonymous GMs answered Wells.
As Crasnick points out, it's got nothing to do with Wells being a bad guy. In fact, most would argue that Milton Bradley is the biggest dick playing baseball today. He can't get along with anyone on any team. No, if it was a personality contest, Wells would win by a landslide.
The GMs pick Vernon Wells because of his contract. He'll make $12.5 million in 2010, followed by $23 million in 2011 and $21 million in 2012, 2013 and 2014. Wells signed this ludicrous contract after a career year in 2006, and then-GM J.P. Riccardi felt it would be wise to lock him up long-term. He locked him up, all right.
Wells will be nearly impossible to move, because of his less than stellar performance (.260, 15 HRs, 66 RBIs in 2009) and the money he's owed. Riccardi's poor decision to sign Wells might be a way for The Mets to get Roy Halladay.
I gushed about him in "Fixing the Mets" Step Three. You might say I have a man-crush on him. Well so be it. I do. I have a man-crush on Doc Halladay. The guy's a machine. He's a perennial Cy Young candidate. And he throws CGs every other start! Oh and did I mention that he'll be a free agent after 2010?
That's right, Halladay will be a free agent after 2010, and Toronto won't be able to afford his contract demands. He's earned a payday from somebody, and it's not likely to be The Blue Jays. He's got Yankees written all over him, but Toronto isn't going to want to have to face him 3 or 4 times a year. I expect Toronto to trade Halladay either this winter or at the deadline this year, so they can maximize his value with a slew of prospects. The problem with that theory is that I don't believe the Mets have the prospects to land him.
This is why we need to make it about more than just prospects... We need to make it about giving Toronto a bail out from the bad debt they have in Vernon Wells. I propose a modest package of minor league talent and perhaps a Mike Pelfrey or John Maine in exchange for Halladay and Wells... and we have to pay a good portion of Wells' contract.
The rotation would be fortified with the best 1-2 punch in baseball, and Wells is an above-average defender and would be a serviceable LF. Who knows... perhaps a change of scenery might be all he needs to get back to the form he showed in 2006.
If we can afford to make this offer, we'd definitely be a team built to win now. Like right now. Like 2010. And 2011. And maybe even 2012.
The conclusion of "Fixing the Mets" will be up later today...
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Fixing the Mets - STEP SIX (The Bench)
STEP SIX: The Bench
Depending upon which big name is acquired – in LF or 1B, we’ll have either Angel Pagan or Daniel Murphy as a very strong sub/pinch hitter.
For the record, I don’t think Pagan is an everyday LF, but he may end up there depending upon the 2010 budget and the acquisition of a better name. Still, Pagan put up some impressive numbers in just 4 months in 2009. His season didn’t begin until June (I believe his first game was the infamous “Church missed third” game… on the bullet that Pagan hit at Dodger Stadium), and he led the team in 3Bs with 11. He batted .306, hit 6 HRs, scored 54 Rs and stole 14 bases. I think Pagan will be our 4th outfielder and fill the role that Endy Chavez filled in 2006 and 2007.
Due to Jose Reyes’ injury-riddled year, we were able to get a look at a slew of mediocre backup middle infielders:
Cora was a warrior in 2009. He played 2B and SS, and got more ABs in more games than anyone expected. When Reyes went down, Cora inserted himself in his place and did an admirable job. He certainly didn’t put up Reyes numbers, but even after he dislocated BOTH HIS THUMBS, Cora stayed in the lineup and pushed off surgery until it was apparent that The Mets were going nowhere. All this being said, I wouldn’t bring Alex back. He signed for $2 million in 2009, and he’ll probably expect the same in 2010.
If we don't bring back Cora and if we ship Martinez off to play in a softball league somewhere, we'd have to choose between Valdez or Hernandez to be our backup infielder. Frankly, both did well enough to earn a bench spot for any MLB team.
Since he rejoined the Mets in August, Hernandez proved that he matured quite a bit since his last stint with the Mets. He has speed and can play both 2B and SS, but his defense is sub-par. That's reason enough for me NOT to make him our main backup middle IF.
So could it be that I'm suggesting Wilson Valdez to be our backup middle IF? I guess I am, if by nothing more than process of elimintation. That, and he'll cost the least and is by far the best defensive player of the above 4. It's true that we never got a chance to see him play any 2B, but I'd think he'd do just fine there when/if needed.
As for an additional OF/bat, it’ll be tough to choose between Cory Sullivan and Jeremy Reed. Sully had a good showing in his limited time with The Mets in 2009. Reed, too, had a pretty good year, but he’ll probably best be remembered for the game-ending error he made in L.A. during the "the guy missed third" debacle of a game. I’d choose Sullivan over Reed, mainly because of his experience.
A lot has been said over the past 2 years about the Mets acquiring Mark DeRosa, who plays almost every position and does so very well. While I agree about DeRosa, I think the same could almost be said about Fernando Tatis. He can play either corner OF position and all 4 IF positions. He’s got a great attitude, has pop, and he’s been a team-first kind of player in 2008 and 2009.
I'd say forget about DeRosa and bring back Tatis on a one-year contract to be the default utility palyer. Tatis seems to have liked this role with The Mets, and Jerry Manuel seems to like Tatis. No reason to try to repalce him with a high-priced guy like DeRosa.
Finally, as I mentioned earlier, either Pagan or Murphy should be available off the bench. Murphy in particular showed that he was a very competent pinch hitter, batting nearly .350 in that role in 2009. There are some that might argue that Murphy’s development as a player would be stunted by riding the pine, but so be it. He must do what’s best for the team, and if being a pinch hitter is it, he’s the kind of guy who’ll do it without thinking twice.
Coming up is STEP SIX... The Conclusion of Fixing the Mets!
Depending upon which big name is acquired – in LF or 1B, we’ll have either Angel Pagan or Daniel Murphy as a very strong sub/pinch hitter.
For the record, I don’t think Pagan is an everyday LF, but he may end up there depending upon the 2010 budget and the acquisition of a better name. Still, Pagan put up some impressive numbers in just 4 months in 2009. His season didn’t begin until June (I believe his first game was the infamous “Church missed third” game… on the bullet that Pagan hit at Dodger Stadium), and he led the team in 3Bs with 11. He batted .306, hit 6 HRs, scored 54 Rs and stole 14 bases. I think Pagan will be our 4th outfielder and fill the role that Endy Chavez filled in 2006 and 2007.
Due to Jose Reyes’ injury-riddled year, we were able to get a look at a slew of mediocre backup middle infielders:
- Alex Cora, signed last winter to be a veteran leader on the team, did everything we asked of him and more.
- Ramon Martinez, who started the season with AAA Buffalo, should never wear a Mets uniform again.
- Wilson Valdez, claimed off waivers from somebody’s scrap heap (can’t recall who), was a very good defender with a cannon for an arm.
- Anderson Hernandez, back in Flushing in a trade with The Nats, is a better player than he was when we traded him away last year for Luis Ayala.
Cora was a warrior in 2009. He played 2B and SS, and got more ABs in more games than anyone expected. When Reyes went down, Cora inserted himself in his place and did an admirable job. He certainly didn’t put up Reyes numbers, but even after he dislocated BOTH HIS THUMBS, Cora stayed in the lineup and pushed off surgery until it was apparent that The Mets were going nowhere. All this being said, I wouldn’t bring Alex back. He signed for $2 million in 2009, and he’ll probably expect the same in 2010.
If we don't bring back Cora and if we ship Martinez off to play in a softball league somewhere, we'd have to choose between Valdez or Hernandez to be our backup infielder. Frankly, both did well enough to earn a bench spot for any MLB team.
Since he rejoined the Mets in August, Hernandez proved that he matured quite a bit since his last stint with the Mets. He has speed and can play both 2B and SS, but his defense is sub-par. That's reason enough for me NOT to make him our main backup middle IF.
So could it be that I'm suggesting Wilson Valdez to be our backup middle IF? I guess I am, if by nothing more than process of elimintation. That, and he'll cost the least and is by far the best defensive player of the above 4. It's true that we never got a chance to see him play any 2B, but I'd think he'd do just fine there when/if needed.
As for an additional OF/bat, it’ll be tough to choose between Cory Sullivan and Jeremy Reed. Sully had a good showing in his limited time with The Mets in 2009. Reed, too, had a pretty good year, but he’ll probably best be remembered for the game-ending error he made in L.A. during the "the guy missed third" debacle of a game. I’d choose Sullivan over Reed, mainly because of his experience.
A lot has been said over the past 2 years about the Mets acquiring Mark DeRosa, who plays almost every position and does so very well. While I agree about DeRosa, I think the same could almost be said about Fernando Tatis. He can play either corner OF position and all 4 IF positions. He’s got a great attitude, has pop, and he’s been a team-first kind of player in 2008 and 2009.
I'd say forget about DeRosa and bring back Tatis on a one-year contract to be the default utility palyer. Tatis seems to have liked this role with The Mets, and Jerry Manuel seems to like Tatis. No reason to try to repalce him with a high-priced guy like DeRosa.
Finally, as I mentioned earlier, either Pagan or Murphy should be available off the bench. Murphy in particular showed that he was a very competent pinch hitter, batting nearly .350 in that role in 2009. There are some that might argue that Murphy’s development as a player would be stunted by riding the pine, but so be it. He must do what’s best for the team, and if being a pinch hitter is it, he’s the kind of guy who’ll do it without thinking twice.
Coming up is STEP SIX... The Conclusion of Fixing the Mets!
Friday, November 6, 2009
Update -- Jermaine Dye is a Free Agent
Here's a quick, non-"Fixing the Mets" note on something I read this morning. The Chicago White Sox declined the $12 million 2010 option for slugging LF Jermaine Dye, opting instead to buy out the contract for $950,000.
Dye is an interesting name to be thrown into the LF hat for the Mets. He's always been a good power bat, hitting 25+ HRs in each of the last 5 seasons. I'm not sure what he'll command as a free agent, but it will most certainly be less (both in dollars and years) than Holliday and Bay. For that reason alone, I'd hope Omar at least considers him.
The big issue is that Dye's not a speedster, which raises the question about his ability to play LF in spacious CitiField. He's a statistically sound fielder -- in 2009, he had a .980 FLD% (5 errors in 247 attempts) along with 9 assists -- but stats don't show how many fly balls in the gap dropped in as doubles.
I'll have the next "Fixing the Mets" post up this weekend.
Dye is an interesting name to be thrown into the LF hat for the Mets. He's always been a good power bat, hitting 25+ HRs in each of the last 5 seasons. I'm not sure what he'll command as a free agent, but it will most certainly be less (both in dollars and years) than Holliday and Bay. For that reason alone, I'd hope Omar at least considers him.
The big issue is that Dye's not a speedster, which raises the question about his ability to play LF in spacious CitiField. He's a statistically sound fielder -- in 2009, he had a .980 FLD% (5 errors in 247 attempts) along with 9 assists -- but stats don't show how many fly balls in the gap dropped in as doubles.
I'll have the next "Fixing the Mets" post up this weekend.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Fixing the Mets - STEP FIVE (The 'Pen)
STEP FIVE: The 'Pen
With the exception of a few minor changes, I’d leave the bullpen intact entering 2010. Brian Stokes and Pedro Feliciano had excellent years (2-4, 45 Ks, 3.97 ERA, 70.1 IP and 6-4, 59 Ks, 3.03 ERA, 59.1 IP, respectively), and Feliciano broke the team record for appearances in a season, with 87 in 2009. He broke his own record of 86, which he set in 2008.
Sean Green was our new Aaron Heilman – the go to guy when we want to be sure something goes wrong, like allowing a game-ending, bases-loaded walk in Philly earlier this year. His line is unimpressive (1-4, 54 Ks, 4.52 ERA, 69.2 IP). And despite all this, he’s pitched effectively enough at times to warrant another shot.
Bobby Parnell should remain a reliever. The argument I’ll use to make my case is right across town – Joba Chamberlain had electric stuff as a reliever, but only average stuff as a starter. It's a no brainer to me. Parnell belongs in the 'Pen. When things were “right” in 2009, Parnell was pitching scoreless 6th and 7th innings. And if we pay close attention to his numbers as a starter, it's quite clear that it's not going to work out for him there. In 8 games started, he posted on 2 quality starts (with 1-5 record) and averaged only 4.5 innings per start. 'Nuff said.
Nelson Figueroa has done a fine enough job in spot starts in 2009 to earn a spot as a long reliever in 2010, punctuated with his complete game shutout against The ‘Stros (sorry Dan) in the last game of the season. And although the same could be said for the way Tim Redding pitched down the stretch, there's something about Figgy that I really like. He's a Brooklyn native who's done just fine when needed him the past two seasons, and his numbers are pretty consistent (2009: 3-8, 59 Ks, 4.09 ERA, 70.1 IP; 2008: 3-3, 36 Ks, 4.57 ERA, 45.1 IP).
NOTE—Figgy’s 8 losses aren’t a good way to evaluate him as a pitcher. He posted 5 quality starts and pitched well enough to earn a W or at least a no decision.
We don’t need Redding if we keep Figgy, so he can be given his walking papers. The Mets got what they (should've) expected out of him (3-6, 76 Ks, 5.10 ERA, 120 IP). Redding was a guy who intrigued me when they announced his signing. I thought he'd be a very serviceable #5 starter - but that was before I knew that Ollie would be back, and that Pelf would struggle and that Maine and Johan would get hurt. Redding ended up missing the first 6 weeks of the season, and being only moderately effective when he did pitch.
Despite posting decent numbers, we should part ways with Ken Takahashi (0-1, 23 Ks, 2.96 ERA, 27.1 IP) and Elmer Dessens (0-0, 14 Ks, 3.31 ERA, 32.2 IP).
UPDATE 10/20 – The Mets released Takahashi.
On the Takahashi front, what the hell was that, anyway? The Mets passed on established LHRPs like Joe Beimel and Will Ohman in the off-season because “Sean Green was such an effective cross-over reliever," and yet Ken Takahashi ended up in our bullpen pitching in a big game in Philly? Remember the game… He gave up an extra inning HR to Raul Ibañez. Let's not make this mistake again. Beimel (1-6, 35 Ks, 3.58 ERA, 55.1 IP) will be a free agent in 2010. Ignore his 2009 record, because he’s very good and there's no rule that says you can't have two LHRPs in the same bullpen.
Pat Misch was a good pick-up, and should stay on board either in competition with Figgy as a long reliever/spot starter, or start the year in AAA and be ready to fill in when needed. Ironically enough, the two guys I’m labeling as long relievers/minor leaguers (Misch and Figgy) are the only two to post complete game shutouts for the 2009 Mets. That’s proof positive that this was a miserable year!!
As an aisde, we made a huge mistake cutting Darren O'Day earlier this year. Yeah, remember him? He pitched in all of 4 games with the Mets, and despite not giving up an earned run, he was released and claimed by Texas. And how'd he do with The Rangers? 2-1, 56 Ks, 1.84 ERA and 58.2 IP. He certainly fared better than Takahashi and Green.
I'd make a strong attempt to bring J.J. Putz back as the setup man. We got next to nothing out of him in 2009, due to injury. The problem is that he has a $9.15 million club option with a $1 million buyout. $9 million is certainly too much to pay a setup man, so I'm hoping the Mets can offer him the buyout for $1 million and re-sign him to an incentive-laden one-year deal. It'd be a shame if Putz passes, because I don't know if can reliably lean on Stokes and/or Parnell to share the setup role.
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention K-Rod’s disappointing second half. It seemed to me like his season went down the shitter when Castillo dropped the A-Rod pop fly in Yankee Stadium. Frankie was untouchable prior to that game, which marked the first blown save in 21 or 22 opportunities in 2009. He ended up blowing 6 more after that Friday in June, and finished with one of his worst statistical years of his career (3-6, 73 Ks, 3.71 ERA, 68 IP).
A lot of people have argued that K-Rod’s poor performance was because he wasn’t used as often as he was used in the past. I was in that camp for while, but after I did some research, I found that the argument is just not sound. Frankie's IP last year, when he set the Major League Saves Record, were 68.1, In 2007 his IP were 67.1 and in 2006 his IP were 73.0. In fact, he had 70 appearances this year, second most in his career.
I’m hoping his poor second half was due to the fact that he was on this miserably uncompetitive team, and that he returns to form in 2010.
Coming up is STEP SIX... The Bench.
With the exception of a few minor changes, I’d leave the bullpen intact entering 2010. Brian Stokes and Pedro Feliciano had excellent years (2-4, 45 Ks, 3.97 ERA, 70.1 IP and 6-4, 59 Ks, 3.03 ERA, 59.1 IP, respectively), and Feliciano broke the team record for appearances in a season, with 87 in 2009. He broke his own record of 86, which he set in 2008.
Sean Green was our new Aaron Heilman – the go to guy when we want to be sure something goes wrong, like allowing a game-ending, bases-loaded walk in Philly earlier this year. His line is unimpressive (1-4, 54 Ks, 4.52 ERA, 69.2 IP). And despite all this, he’s pitched effectively enough at times to warrant another shot.
Bobby Parnell should remain a reliever. The argument I’ll use to make my case is right across town – Joba Chamberlain had electric stuff as a reliever, but only average stuff as a starter. It's a no brainer to me. Parnell belongs in the 'Pen. When things were “right” in 2009, Parnell was pitching scoreless 6th and 7th innings. And if we pay close attention to his numbers as a starter, it's quite clear that it's not going to work out for him there. In 8 games started, he posted on 2 quality starts (with 1-5 record) and averaged only 4.5 innings per start. 'Nuff said.
Nelson Figueroa has done a fine enough job in spot starts in 2009 to earn a spot as a long reliever in 2010, punctuated with his complete game shutout against The ‘Stros (sorry Dan) in the last game of the season. And although the same could be said for the way Tim Redding pitched down the stretch, there's something about Figgy that I really like. He's a Brooklyn native who's done just fine when needed him the past two seasons, and his numbers are pretty consistent (2009: 3-8, 59 Ks, 4.09 ERA, 70.1 IP; 2008: 3-3, 36 Ks, 4.57 ERA, 45.1 IP).
NOTE—Figgy’s 8 losses aren’t a good way to evaluate him as a pitcher. He posted 5 quality starts and pitched well enough to earn a W or at least a no decision.
We don’t need Redding if we keep Figgy, so he can be given his walking papers. The Mets got what they (should've) expected out of him (3-6, 76 Ks, 5.10 ERA, 120 IP). Redding was a guy who intrigued me when they announced his signing. I thought he'd be a very serviceable #5 starter - but that was before I knew that Ollie would be back, and that Pelf would struggle and that Maine and Johan would get hurt. Redding ended up missing the first 6 weeks of the season, and being only moderately effective when he did pitch.
Despite posting decent numbers, we should part ways with Ken Takahashi (0-1, 23 Ks, 2.96 ERA, 27.1 IP) and Elmer Dessens (0-0, 14 Ks, 3.31 ERA, 32.2 IP).
UPDATE 10/20 – The Mets released Takahashi.
On the Takahashi front, what the hell was that, anyway? The Mets passed on established LHRPs like Joe Beimel and Will Ohman in the off-season because “Sean Green was such an effective cross-over reliever," and yet Ken Takahashi ended up in our bullpen pitching in a big game in Philly? Remember the game… He gave up an extra inning HR to Raul Ibañez. Let's not make this mistake again. Beimel (1-6, 35 Ks, 3.58 ERA, 55.1 IP) will be a free agent in 2010. Ignore his 2009 record, because he’s very good and there's no rule that says you can't have two LHRPs in the same bullpen.
Pat Misch was a good pick-up, and should stay on board either in competition with Figgy as a long reliever/spot starter, or start the year in AAA and be ready to fill in when needed. Ironically enough, the two guys I’m labeling as long relievers/minor leaguers (Misch and Figgy) are the only two to post complete game shutouts for the 2009 Mets. That’s proof positive that this was a miserable year!!
As an aisde, we made a huge mistake cutting Darren O'Day earlier this year. Yeah, remember him? He pitched in all of 4 games with the Mets, and despite not giving up an earned run, he was released and claimed by Texas. And how'd he do with The Rangers? 2-1, 56 Ks, 1.84 ERA and 58.2 IP. He certainly fared better than Takahashi and Green.
I'd make a strong attempt to bring J.J. Putz back as the setup man. We got next to nothing out of him in 2009, due to injury. The problem is that he has a $9.15 million club option with a $1 million buyout. $9 million is certainly too much to pay a setup man, so I'm hoping the Mets can offer him the buyout for $1 million and re-sign him to an incentive-laden one-year deal. It'd be a shame if Putz passes, because I don't know if can reliably lean on Stokes and/or Parnell to share the setup role.
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention K-Rod’s disappointing second half. It seemed to me like his season went down the shitter when Castillo dropped the A-Rod pop fly in Yankee Stadium. Frankie was untouchable prior to that game, which marked the first blown save in 21 or 22 opportunities in 2009. He ended up blowing 6 more after that Friday in June, and finished with one of his worst statistical years of his career (3-6, 73 Ks, 3.71 ERA, 68 IP).
A lot of people have argued that K-Rod’s poor performance was because he wasn’t used as often as he was used in the past. I was in that camp for while, but after I did some research, I found that the argument is just not sound. Frankie's IP last year, when he set the Major League Saves Record, were 68.1, In 2007 his IP were 67.1 and in 2006 his IP were 73.0. In fact, he had 70 appearances this year, second most in his career.
I’m hoping his poor second half was due to the fact that he was on this miserably uncompetitive team, and that he returns to form in 2010.
Coming up is STEP SIX... The Bench.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Fixing the Mets - STEP FOUR, Part 4 (2B, 3B, SS, CF, RF)
STEP FOUR, PART 4: 2B, 3B, SS, CF, RF
I want to touch upon these additional positions because there are some minimal improvements made (2B). The rest can and should remain the same.
Luis Castillo had a terrific 2009 season. Coming off an absolutely dismal 2008 (.245, .355 OBP, 46 R, 17 SB), he bounced back nicely (.302, .387 OBP, 77 R, 20 SB). He's not the defensive 2B that he used to be, no denying that, but he had a decent year in the field. His 2009 season was so good, we might actually be able to trade him! And trade him we should. We should trade him to anybody who’ll take him. The problem is the money he’s owed.
In a shocking development, I can't believe MLB Trade Rumors didn't list the 2007 Castillo contract as one of the worst in baseball - 4 years, $24 million for a past-his-prime 2B who has no pop. Again, we're still committed to Luis for $6 million a year over the next 2 seasons. It's going to be tough to sell that to somebody, even with his bounce back 2009.
In a perfect world, The Mets would be able to send Luis away somehow and replace him with Orlando Hudson. He’s a guy I thought we should have approached last off-season, but the Castillo contract stood in the way then. Instead, O-Dogg signed a one-year, $5 million deal with The Dodgers. He got off to a great start, but he slowed in the second half to finish with average numbers (.283, .357 OBP, 9 HR, 62 RBI, 74 R, 8 SB). In fact, L.A. benched him down the stretch after they acquired Met-killer Ronnie Belliard from The Nats. Belliard played so well in 24 games for L.A. (.351, 5 HRs, 17 RBIs), he may end up replacing Hudson there next year.
Stats aside, Hudson is as valuable in the clubhouse as he is on the field. He’s got a terrific work ethic, is a full-fledged Gold Glover, and he’s got a very good head on his shoulders. He’s the kind of guy who could fill the shoes left empty when Jose Valentin and his mustache left the club for greener pastures. Valentin was an obvious mentor to and positive influence upon Jose Reyes. Hudson would be the same, both for Reyes and Murphy.
O-Dogg made no secret about the fact that he wanted to play in New York in 2009. This is why he’ll come to New York in 2010, and because of his below average second half performance, he can probably be had for cheap.
In a perfect world, The Mets would be able to send Luis away somehow and replace him with Orlando Hudson. He’s a guy I thought we should have approached last off-season, but the Castillo contract stood in the way then. Instead, O-Dogg signed a one-year, $5 million deal with The Dodgers. He got off to a great start, but he slowed in the second half to finish with average numbers (.283, .357 OBP, 9 HR, 62 RBI, 74 R, 8 SB). In fact, L.A. benched him down the stretch after they acquired Met-killer Ronnie Belliard from The Nats. Belliard played so well in 24 games for L.A. (.351, 5 HRs, 17 RBIs), he may end up replacing Hudson there next year.
Stats aside, Hudson is as valuable in the clubhouse as he is on the field. He’s got a terrific work ethic, is a full-fledged Gold Glover, and he’s got a very good head on his shoulders. He’s the kind of guy who could fill the shoes left empty when Jose Valentin and his mustache left the club for greener pastures. Valentin was an obvious mentor to and positive influence upon Jose Reyes. Hudson would be the same, both for Reyes and Murphy.
O-Dogg made no secret about the fact that he wanted to play in New York in 2009. This is why he’ll come to New York in 2010, and because of his below average second half performance, he can probably be had for cheap.
As for CF, 3B, SS and RF, these positions will be filled by Beltran, Wright, Reyes and Francouer, respectively, in 2010 (and beyond).
I’ve already talked about how valuable Belty and Wright are. Jose Reyes, discounting his miserable 2009 campaign, remains one of the best players in baseball. There are lots of people out there - and I am occasionally one of them - who suggest trading Jose. I'm off that bandwagon. He needs to remain in New York and start setting some records for most triples in a season. I'm thinking he'll be able to hit 30 in a healthy season at CitiField!
I’ve already talked about how valuable Belty and Wright are. Jose Reyes, discounting his miserable 2009 campaign, remains one of the best players in baseball. There are lots of people out there - and I am occasionally one of them - who suggest trading Jose. I'm off that bandwagon. He needs to remain in New York and start setting some records for most triples in a season. I'm thinking he'll be able to hit 30 in a healthy season at CitiField!
Seriously, though, Reyes is a guy that any team would kill to have. We need to start appreciating what he brings to the table. His absence in 2009 was a real wake up call to me. It's clear to me that he's a very special player, and I can't wait to have him back at the top of the order.
Jeff Francoeur was a pleasant surprise, and one of the few bright spots of 2009. In 75 games with The Mets this season, Frenchy hit .311 with 10 HRs and 41 RBIs. His defense is above-average, and he's got an absolute cannon for an arm. That, coupled with an attitude that would‘ve fit on the ’86 Mets, and he gets an opportunity to prove that his 2006 and 2007 seasons with Atlanta were not a fluke.
Coming up is STEP FIVE... The 'Pen.
Coming up is STEP FIVE... The 'Pen.
Fixing the Mets - STEP FOUR, PART 3 (C)
STEP FOUR, PART 3: Catcher
Brian Schneider has been a complete disaster as a Met. He wasn't that great defensively and he didn't hit to save his life. He finished 2009 batting .218 (and was actually below .200 for a full month), and he missed lots of time due to injuries in his two years here.
Schneider is just not good enough to be a starter in the Major Leagues, at least not for a contender. He should go be a backup somewhere else. We should never have to see the former Konkrete Kid in a Mets uniform again.
The best option here would've been Victor Martinez, who plays C and 1B, but Boston snatched him up in what was probably the second best move by a contender at the trading deadline (the other was St. Louis getting Matt Holliday), and dashed our chances there. V-Mart finished with very good numbers (.303, 23 HRs, 108 RBIs) splitting time between Cleveland and the Red Sox, who will most certainly sign him to a long-term contract if they haven’t already done so. He would've been a perfect fit for the Mets, both behind the dish and in a platoon with Murph at 1B. So much for that.
In the interest of saving cash, we should go after a catcher who will be okay in a full-on platoon with Omir Santos. This person should also be good enough to be an everyday player if Santos proves to be a "one year wonder." Of the available free agents, Rod Barajas is a guy who piques my interest. He had 429 ABs in 2009 (compared to 170 from Schneider) with Toronto and he is a significant offensive upgrade over Schneider - not a tall task, I know. Barajas had a fine enough season in Toronto (19 HRs, 71 RBIs), albeit with a very low batting average (.226) and OBP (.258).
More than that, Barajas is an above average defensive catcher (so says Baseball Prospectus), and it shows in that Toronto's pitching staff was very good in 2009. The best thing about Barajas is that he won't cost as much as an aging Bengie Molina.
I'm nervous about Molina being a free agent, mainly because Omar seems to be attracted to past-their-prime players (Moises Alou, anyone)? That, coupled with his productive 2007 (.276, 19 HRs, 81 RBIs), 2008 (.292, 16 HRs, 95 RBIs) and 2009 (.265, 20 HRs, 80 RBIs) seasons, and he looks like a typical Minaya signing.
Molina's the worst defensive catcher of the Molina Catching Clan - that's not to say he's a bad backstop, just that he's not in Yadier's league. Plus, he's going to be 36, his best years are behind him and he'll probably want a 2- or 3-year deal.
I'm hoping Omar makes the smart choice and goes with an inexpensive signing like Barajas and avoids a sexier deal in Molina.
An alternative is that Omar would rather spend The Wilpons money elsewhere (i.e. LF or 1B). In this case, Josh Thole might be the answer in a straight platoon with Santos. In 53 ABs this year, he batted .321 (17 hits). That’s a very small sample size (like Murphy's 2008), but the kid looks to be very talented at the plate. If nothing else, he's a glimpse into the future – probably 2011 or 2012.
And just like I said about using caution at 1B because Ike Davis is on the horizon, the same logic should apply with filling the C hole. If Thole is the guy, it'd be smarter for Omar to make a lower-cost 2-year deal for Barajas to platoon with Santos or just be our everyday catcher.
Schneider is just not good enough to be a starter in the Major Leagues, at least not for a contender. He should go be a backup somewhere else. We should never have to see the former Konkrete Kid in a Mets uniform again.
The best option here would've been Victor Martinez, who plays C and 1B, but Boston snatched him up in what was probably the second best move by a contender at the trading deadline (the other was St. Louis getting Matt Holliday), and dashed our chances there. V-Mart finished with very good numbers (.303, 23 HRs, 108 RBIs) splitting time between Cleveland and the Red Sox, who will most certainly sign him to a long-term contract if they haven’t already done so. He would've been a perfect fit for the Mets, both behind the dish and in a platoon with Murph at 1B. So much for that.
In the interest of saving cash, we should go after a catcher who will be okay in a full-on platoon with Omir Santos. This person should also be good enough to be an everyday player if Santos proves to be a "one year wonder." Of the available free agents, Rod Barajas is a guy who piques my interest. He had 429 ABs in 2009 (compared to 170 from Schneider) with Toronto and he is a significant offensive upgrade over Schneider - not a tall task, I know. Barajas had a fine enough season in Toronto (19 HRs, 71 RBIs), albeit with a very low batting average (.226) and OBP (.258).
More than that, Barajas is an above average defensive catcher (so says Baseball Prospectus), and it shows in that Toronto's pitching staff was very good in 2009. The best thing about Barajas is that he won't cost as much as an aging Bengie Molina.
I'm nervous about Molina being a free agent, mainly because Omar seems to be attracted to past-their-prime players (Moises Alou, anyone)? That, coupled with his productive 2007 (.276, 19 HRs, 81 RBIs), 2008 (.292, 16 HRs, 95 RBIs) and 2009 (.265, 20 HRs, 80 RBIs) seasons, and he looks like a typical Minaya signing.
Molina's the worst defensive catcher of the Molina Catching Clan - that's not to say he's a bad backstop, just that he's not in Yadier's league. Plus, he's going to be 36, his best years are behind him and he'll probably want a 2- or 3-year deal.
I'm hoping Omar makes the smart choice and goes with an inexpensive signing like Barajas and avoids a sexier deal in Molina.
An alternative is that Omar would rather spend The Wilpons money elsewhere (i.e. LF or 1B). In this case, Josh Thole might be the answer in a straight platoon with Santos. In 53 ABs this year, he batted .321 (17 hits). That’s a very small sample size (like Murphy's 2008), but the kid looks to be very talented at the plate. If nothing else, he's a glimpse into the future – probably 2011 or 2012.
And just like I said about using caution at 1B because Ike Davis is on the horizon, the same logic should apply with filling the C hole. If Thole is the guy, it'd be smarter for Omar to make a lower-cost 2-year deal for Barajas to platoon with Santos or just be our everyday catcher.
Coming up next is the continuation of STEP FOUR... 2B, 3B, SS, CF, RF.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Fixing the Mets - STEP FOUR, PART 2 (1B)
The free agents at 1B are just plain unappealing. Anybody want to see Adam LaRoche as a Met next year? How about Chad Tracy? Or Nick Johnson? Or Eric Hinske? The only moderately intriguing free agent is Russell Branyan, who was having a good season (.251, 31 HRs, 76 RBIs) before going down with “lower back pain.” Branyan’s 34 years old, though, and coming off a 30+ homer season he'll command a decent contract. I expect him to remain in the AL where he can play 1B and DH.
If Branyan is truly the best free agent option, why not just resign Carlos Delgado for cheap? Branyan's 2009 numbers are on par with Delgado's "bad" 2007 season (.258, 24 HRs, 87 RBIs). I’m not advocating Delgado’s return, for the record. While Delgado was out, David Wright took a clear leadership role on the team. I firmly expect Mr. Wright to be wearing a "C" on his jersey in 2010 and beyond, making him only the 5th man to bear the official moniker in franchise history. (The others were Keith from '87-'89, Gary Carter from '88-'89, Mookie in '89 and John Franco from '01-'04.)
Free agents and Delgado aside, there’s a possibility for us to trade for an elite, slugging 1B. The two in mind are Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez.
There have been rumors that Milwaukee will try to trade Fielder before his walk year in 2011, and he had an MVP-type 2009 (.299, 46 HRs, 141 RBIs). He definitely won't come cheap and The Brewers will be asking for a lot, but if Omar can put a package together, it’s a deal that must be made.
I don’t know much about Fielder’s defense, so I can’t say how he’ll fit in with the new speed/defense plan. Still, it’s impossible to argue against the kind of power he brings to the table. His presence as our clean-up hitter in 2010 would take so much pressure off Wright, and allow him to bat 5th where he’s thrived in the past. Beltran is a much better 3rd hitter, and Crawford would be 2nd behind Reyes.
Adrian Gonzalez is a Gold-Glove 1B with typical power stats (.277, 40 HRs, 99 RBIs). Like Fielder, though, Gonzo will be costly and he's not making a lot of money right now in San Diego. He's like a vacuum at first, and his presence defensively will greatly improve everyone's fielding percentages. His power can't be denied, either, and if he's in a more potent lineup with more guys on base, his RBI total will be much higher, too.
If we can’t get The Prince or Gonzo – and I think it’s realistic to think that we won’t – I think Daniel Murphy should be our starting 1B in 2010. The way Murph handled himself in 2009 is beyond admirable. The kid has thick skin, to say the least. He stuck it out through a very difficult season both for the team and for himself, and he kept his head up the whole time. His performance changed dramatically when he was no longer fumbling around in LF.
Murphy showed lots of promise in the field at 1B. And although he doesn’t put up typical 1B power numbers, neither did John Olerud. Now I’m not saying that Murphy is going to start wearing a helmet in the field and start batting .390, but Olerud proved that there’s more to playing 1B than hitting HRs.
Another note on Murph ties into a "Mets Fact" from my 2009 New York Mets Desk Calendar. The fact was from September 21, and it stated that Ron Hunt holds the record for most hits by a Mets player in his rookie season (145 in 1963). I did a little research, and Hunt had 533 ABs in 1963, posting a .272 AVG and a .334 OBP. In his first full season, Murph had 508 ABs and finished with 135 hits and a .266 AVG. Again, I'm not comparing Murphy to Olerud or to Ron Hunt, just making an observation that he's a very good complementary player.
The final thought on keeping Murph at 1B in 2010 is that it keeps the door wide open for 2011 when Ike Davis is ready for prime time. Early reports on Davis, especially from his play thus far in the AFL (Arizona Fall League) is that he's definitely going to be a Major League 1B in the near future. This is reason enough for Omar to avoid trading for a big time 1B like Fielder or Gonzo, and instead waiting for Davis to blossom into the player we hope he can become.
Coming up is the continuation of STEP FOUR... C.
If Branyan is truly the best free agent option, why not just resign Carlos Delgado for cheap? Branyan's 2009 numbers are on par with Delgado's "bad" 2007 season (.258, 24 HRs, 87 RBIs). I’m not advocating Delgado’s return, for the record. While Delgado was out, David Wright took a clear leadership role on the team. I firmly expect Mr. Wright to be wearing a "C" on his jersey in 2010 and beyond, making him only the 5th man to bear the official moniker in franchise history. (The others were Keith from '87-'89, Gary Carter from '88-'89, Mookie in '89 and John Franco from '01-'04.)
Free agents and Delgado aside, there’s a possibility for us to trade for an elite, slugging 1B. The two in mind are Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez.
There have been rumors that Milwaukee will try to trade Fielder before his walk year in 2011, and he had an MVP-type 2009 (.299, 46 HRs, 141 RBIs). He definitely won't come cheap and The Brewers will be asking for a lot, but if Omar can put a package together, it’s a deal that must be made.
I don’t know much about Fielder’s defense, so I can’t say how he’ll fit in with the new speed/defense plan. Still, it’s impossible to argue against the kind of power he brings to the table. His presence as our clean-up hitter in 2010 would take so much pressure off Wright, and allow him to bat 5th where he’s thrived in the past. Beltran is a much better 3rd hitter, and Crawford would be 2nd behind Reyes.
Adrian Gonzalez is a Gold-Glove 1B with typical power stats (.277, 40 HRs, 99 RBIs). Like Fielder, though, Gonzo will be costly and he's not making a lot of money right now in San Diego. He's like a vacuum at first, and his presence defensively will greatly improve everyone's fielding percentages. His power can't be denied, either, and if he's in a more potent lineup with more guys on base, his RBI total will be much higher, too.
If we can’t get The Prince or Gonzo – and I think it’s realistic to think that we won’t – I think Daniel Murphy should be our starting 1B in 2010. The way Murph handled himself in 2009 is beyond admirable. The kid has thick skin, to say the least. He stuck it out through a very difficult season both for the team and for himself, and he kept his head up the whole time. His performance changed dramatically when he was no longer fumbling around in LF.
Murphy showed lots of promise in the field at 1B. And although he doesn’t put up typical 1B power numbers, neither did John Olerud. Now I’m not saying that Murphy is going to start wearing a helmet in the field and start batting .390, but Olerud proved that there’s more to playing 1B than hitting HRs.
Another note on Murph ties into a "Mets Fact" from my 2009 New York Mets Desk Calendar. The fact was from September 21, and it stated that Ron Hunt holds the record for most hits by a Mets player in his rookie season (145 in 1963). I did a little research, and Hunt had 533 ABs in 1963, posting a .272 AVG and a .334 OBP. In his first full season, Murph had 508 ABs and finished with 135 hits and a .266 AVG. Again, I'm not comparing Murphy to Olerud or to Ron Hunt, just making an observation that he's a very good complementary player.
The final thought on keeping Murph at 1B in 2010 is that it keeps the door wide open for 2011 when Ike Davis is ready for prime time. Early reports on Davis, especially from his play thus far in the AFL (Arizona Fall League) is that he's definitely going to be a Major League 1B in the near future. This is reason enough for Omar to avoid trading for a big time 1B like Fielder or Gonzo, and instead waiting for Davis to blossom into the player we hope he can become.
Coming up is the continuation of STEP FOUR... C.
Monday, October 26, 2009
Fixing the Mets - STEP FOUR, PART 1 (LF)
STEP FOUR: Choose players that best fit that plan.
Despite 2009, we’ve got lots of very good/great players at lots of different positions. Anyone who argues that the Mets need to “break up the core” is out of their mind. We’ve got the best CF in baseball and one of the best 3B and SS. The biggest openings are in LF, 1B and C.
The 2010 free agent class is weak, but it's not without some good names that would be a good fit for the Mets. The keys here should be to find young(er) guys who have been relatively healthy throughout their careers.
Before I start with position players, I want to point out that the most important thing for the 2010 Mets is to address their rotation. They can add big stars in LF, at 1B and behind the dish, but without stronger starting pitching, they’ll continue to flounder.
That being said, let’s proceed with…
LEFT FIELD__________________________________________
Without a doubt, the biggest mistake going into 2009 was thinking that Daniel Murphy would be an everyday LF. Hindsight is always 20/20, but the Murph/LF project is even more ridiculous when you consider that The Mets could've signed either Adam Dunn (.267, 38 HRs, 105 RBIs) or Bobby Abreu (.293, 15 HRs, 103 RBIs) for under $10 million.
Let me say that this is not an indictment of Murph. His 2009 campaign was similar to any normal second-year player, particularly one who’s trying to learn a new position at the Major League level. The issue is that our expectations were too high, thanks to how management shoved Murph down our throats as the second coming of Mickey Mantle. I admit that I, too, bought into the hype. I still believe in Murph as a player, but he was in the wrong place at the wrong time in 2009. More on that in a bit.
We can't make the same mistake going into 2010. Angel Pagan, while he was really good (.303, 6 HRs, 32 RBIs and 11 3B), is just NOT good enough to be an everyday LF. The big off-season “sweepstakes” will be centered around two free agent boppers in Matt Holliday and Jason Bay, who are both offensive players with less than average defensive abilities.
Holliday will command an assload of money after having a terrific season (.313, 24 HRs, 109 RBIs), and he will probably get it because his agent is Scott Boras. Bay had a really good year in Boston, with slugger numbers (.267, 36 HRs, 119 RBIs). Since I’ve already talked about the team being built around speed and defense, the Mets should avoid both men.
Instead, I’d make a bid for Carl Crawford from Tampa Bay. He’s got a $10 million option with The Rays, who are looking to dump salary going into 2010. Assuming they don’t pick up the option, the Mets should sign him ASAP. It'll surely cost them $10 million+ a year for a multi-year deal, but Crawford is only 28 and he’s got great career averages – .296, 10 HRs, 70 RBIs, 80+ Rs and 40+ SBs per year.
The only downside with Crawford is his injury history. He's missed quite a bit of time in his young career, playing in 109 games in 2008 and 143 in 2007. He did play in 153 in 2009, which is a good sign. Regardless, and with the thought that Pagan will be a regular fourth outfielder and can fill in every now and again, Crawford fits perfectly into the speed and defense mode the team should be building toward. With him patrolling LF, Beltran in CF and Francoeur in RF, our outfield defense will be stellar.
Outside of Crawford (and the aforementioned Holliday and Bay), there aren’t any other free agents worth mentioning.
There's a shot that Fernando Martinez might be ready by 2010, but frankly, I'm not convinced that he's the savior we all hoped he'd be. I’m glad that they’re not Milledgeing (or Murphying) him on us.
A long shot alternative is Chris Carter, who was acquired from Boston in the Billy Wagner trade. Early reports on him are that he's got lots of pop – he drove in the first run at CitiField during the April exhibition game with a long double. It would've been nice to see him get some playing time with The Mets in September, but The Yankees dashed those chances by making a waiver claim on him, which kept him in Boston for the rest of 2009. It was a shrewd move by Cashman to weaken The Red Sox post-season roster, but it really hurt us. Carter also plays 1B, so he may end up on the 25-man roster as a bench guy. I just can’t see him being the starting LF in 2010.
Coming up next is the continuation of STEP FOUR... 1B.
Despite 2009, we’ve got lots of very good/great players at lots of different positions. Anyone who argues that the Mets need to “break up the core” is out of their mind. We’ve got the best CF in baseball and one of the best 3B and SS. The biggest openings are in LF, 1B and C.
The 2010 free agent class is weak, but it's not without some good names that would be a good fit for the Mets. The keys here should be to find young(er) guys who have been relatively healthy throughout their careers.
Before I start with position players, I want to point out that the most important thing for the 2010 Mets is to address their rotation. They can add big stars in LF, at 1B and behind the dish, but without stronger starting pitching, they’ll continue to flounder.
That being said, let’s proceed with…
LEFT FIELD__________________________________________
Without a doubt, the biggest mistake going into 2009 was thinking that Daniel Murphy would be an everyday LF. Hindsight is always 20/20, but the Murph/LF project is even more ridiculous when you consider that The Mets could've signed either Adam Dunn (.267, 38 HRs, 105 RBIs) or Bobby Abreu (.293, 15 HRs, 103 RBIs) for under $10 million.
Let me say that this is not an indictment of Murph. His 2009 campaign was similar to any normal second-year player, particularly one who’s trying to learn a new position at the Major League level. The issue is that our expectations were too high, thanks to how management shoved Murph down our throats as the second coming of Mickey Mantle. I admit that I, too, bought into the hype. I still believe in Murph as a player, but he was in the wrong place at the wrong time in 2009. More on that in a bit.
We can't make the same mistake going into 2010. Angel Pagan, while he was really good (.303, 6 HRs, 32 RBIs and 11 3B), is just NOT good enough to be an everyday LF. The big off-season “sweepstakes” will be centered around two free agent boppers in Matt Holliday and Jason Bay, who are both offensive players with less than average defensive abilities.
Holliday will command an assload of money after having a terrific season (.313, 24 HRs, 109 RBIs), and he will probably get it because his agent is Scott Boras. Bay had a really good year in Boston, with slugger numbers (.267, 36 HRs, 119 RBIs). Since I’ve already talked about the team being built around speed and defense, the Mets should avoid both men.
Instead, I’d make a bid for Carl Crawford from Tampa Bay. He’s got a $10 million option with The Rays, who are looking to dump salary going into 2010. Assuming they don’t pick up the option, the Mets should sign him ASAP. It'll surely cost them $10 million+ a year for a multi-year deal, but Crawford is only 28 and he’s got great career averages – .296, 10 HRs, 70 RBIs, 80+ Rs and 40+ SBs per year.
The only downside with Crawford is his injury history. He's missed quite a bit of time in his young career, playing in 109 games in 2008 and 143 in 2007. He did play in 153 in 2009, which is a good sign. Regardless, and with the thought that Pagan will be a regular fourth outfielder and can fill in every now and again, Crawford fits perfectly into the speed and defense mode the team should be building toward. With him patrolling LF, Beltran in CF and Francoeur in RF, our outfield defense will be stellar.
Outside of Crawford (and the aforementioned Holliday and Bay), there aren’t any other free agents worth mentioning.
There's a shot that Fernando Martinez might be ready by 2010, but frankly, I'm not convinced that he's the savior we all hoped he'd be. I’m glad that they’re not Milledgeing (or Murphying) him on us.
A long shot alternative is Chris Carter, who was acquired from Boston in the Billy Wagner trade. Early reports on him are that he's got lots of pop – he drove in the first run at CitiField during the April exhibition game with a long double. It would've been nice to see him get some playing time with The Mets in September, but The Yankees dashed those chances by making a waiver claim on him, which kept him in Boston for the rest of 2009. It was a shrewd move by Cashman to weaken The Red Sox post-season roster, but it really hurt us. Carter also plays 1B, so he may end up on the 25-man roster as a bench guy. I just can’t see him being the starting LF in 2010.
Coming up next is the continuation of STEP FOUR... 1B.
Fixing the Mets - STEP THREE
STEP THREE: Help Johan out!
Good teams – winning teams – have more than 1 good starter. Unfortunately, by that rationale, the Mets are not a good team right now. Johan Santana is the only good starter we have. As I’ve documented already, Mike Pelfrey took a huge step backwards in 2009, Ollie is what Ollie is, and John Maine really only has one full season under his belt (2007). Add to that the fact that we never really had a fifth starter going into the season (the fact that Livan Hernandez lasted more as long as he did in the rotation is amazing to me), and the end result is the mediocre rotation we had in ’09… filled with lots of spot starts and the occasional gem from one of the best pitchers in the game.
Johan signed a big contract with the Mets, but it was to HELP the team win a championship. It’s time somebody reminded the brass that in order for Johan to help, they need to help him. Like that line in Jerry Maguire… “Help me help you.”
I honestly thought fixing the bullpen would help Johan – after all, it was the ‘pen that cost him 7 more wins in 2008, and probably the Cy Young Award. That proved not to be the case. JJ Putz was a non‐factor due to injury, and K‐Rod turned out to be more human than any of us thought he'd be. (A thought on K‐Rod: The reports had always been that Frankie is a real competitor, and I wonder whether the Mets being out of contention had something to do with his poor performance in the second half? Just look at how dominant he was during the first half, when the Mets were right around 1st or 2nd place. The argument that he didn’t pitch often enough is a fraud, because he had only 3 fewer appearances than he did during his record‐setting 2008 campaign.)
I’ll give some credit where credit is due. The bullpen wasn’t all that bad in 2009, but iIt's time to help Johan out by adding another big name frontline starter to the rotation, and it should be somebody who is as dependable – and dominant – as he is.
Of the free agents, two catch my eye: John Lackey and Rich Harden.
Lackey was the ace in Anaheim for the past 2 years, but has struggled with injuries. In fact, he started 2009 on the DL. That said, though, he's 31 and is a full‐fledged free agent with solid numbers (11‐8, 139 Ks, 3.83 ERA, 176 IP) this year, although not as good as his 2007 numbers (19‐9, 179 Ks, 3.01 ERA, 33 games). The Angels recently acquired our old pal Scott Kazmir, which signifies to me that they don’t expect to resign Lackey. If the Mets were to sign him, he'd be a very solid #2 behind Johan. Also worth noting was his Game 2 performance against the Yanks in the ALCS. He took the loss, but he kept his team in the game and pitched very well despite his defense completely falling apart behind him.
Harden would make another solid #2. Although more injury‐prone than Lackey, he had a pretty good year with The Cubs (9‐9, 171 Ks, 4.09 ERA, 141 IP). Last year, mixed between Oakland and Chicago, he was positively fantastic (10‐2, 181 Ks, 2.07 ERA, 148 IP). The problem with Harden is his injury history, as the most IPs he's had in a season was 189 in 2004. Still, he's only 28 years old and might be an inexpensive signee.
If we bypass the free agents, there’s really only one guy we should be trying to trade for, and he’s a licensed doctor. Arguably the most durable starting pitcher of our generation, Roy Halladay has been a force in the perennially‐difficult AL East. His career numbers don’t lie:
Good teams – winning teams – have more than 1 good starter. Unfortunately, by that rationale, the Mets are not a good team right now. Johan Santana is the only good starter we have. As I’ve documented already, Mike Pelfrey took a huge step backwards in 2009, Ollie is what Ollie is, and John Maine really only has one full season under his belt (2007). Add to that the fact that we never really had a fifth starter going into the season (the fact that Livan Hernandez lasted more as long as he did in the rotation is amazing to me), and the end result is the mediocre rotation we had in ’09… filled with lots of spot starts and the occasional gem from one of the best pitchers in the game.
Johan signed a big contract with the Mets, but it was to HELP the team win a championship. It’s time somebody reminded the brass that in order for Johan to help, they need to help him. Like that line in Jerry Maguire… “Help me help you.”
I honestly thought fixing the bullpen would help Johan – after all, it was the ‘pen that cost him 7 more wins in 2008, and probably the Cy Young Award. That proved not to be the case. JJ Putz was a non‐factor due to injury, and K‐Rod turned out to be more human than any of us thought he'd be. (A thought on K‐Rod: The reports had always been that Frankie is a real competitor, and I wonder whether the Mets being out of contention had something to do with his poor performance in the second half? Just look at how dominant he was during the first half, when the Mets were right around 1st or 2nd place. The argument that he didn’t pitch often enough is a fraud, because he had only 3 fewer appearances than he did during his record‐setting 2008 campaign.)
I’ll give some credit where credit is due. The bullpen wasn’t all that bad in 2009, but iIt's time to help Johan out by adding another big name frontline starter to the rotation, and it should be somebody who is as dependable – and dominant – as he is.
Of the free agents, two catch my eye: John Lackey and Rich Harden.
Lackey was the ace in Anaheim for the past 2 years, but has struggled with injuries. In fact, he started 2009 on the DL. That said, though, he's 31 and is a full‐fledged free agent with solid numbers (11‐8, 139 Ks, 3.83 ERA, 176 IP) this year, although not as good as his 2007 numbers (19‐9, 179 Ks, 3.01 ERA, 33 games). The Angels recently acquired our old pal Scott Kazmir, which signifies to me that they don’t expect to resign Lackey. If the Mets were to sign him, he'd be a very solid #2 behind Johan. Also worth noting was his Game 2 performance against the Yanks in the ALCS. He took the loss, but he kept his team in the game and pitched very well despite his defense completely falling apart behind him.
Harden would make another solid #2. Although more injury‐prone than Lackey, he had a pretty good year with The Cubs (9‐9, 171 Ks, 4.09 ERA, 141 IP). Last year, mixed between Oakland and Chicago, he was positively fantastic (10‐2, 181 Ks, 2.07 ERA, 148 IP). The problem with Harden is his injury history, as the most IPs he's had in a season was 189 in 2004. Still, he's only 28 years old and might be an inexpensive signee.
If we bypass the free agents, there’s really only one guy we should be trying to trade for, and he’s a licensed doctor. Arguably the most durable starting pitcher of our generation, Roy Halladay has been a force in the perennially‐difficult AL East. His career numbers don’t lie:
- 2002: 19‐7, 168 Ks, 2.93 ERA, 239.1 IP, 2 CG
- 2003: 22‐7, 204 Ks, 3.25 ERA, 266 IP, 9 CG
- 2006: 16‐5, 132 Ks, 3.19 ERA, 220 IP, 4 CG
- 2007: 16‐7, 139 Ks, 3.71 ERA, 225.1 IP, 7 CG
- 2008: 20‐11, 206 Ks, 2.78 ERA, 246 IP, 9 CG
- 2009: 17‐10, 208 Ks, 2.79 ERA, 239 IP, 9 CG
That’s right. 9 CG in 2009… 7 more than THE ENTIRE METS PITCHING STAFF combined! Doc is a friggin’ machine, and having him as a Met behind (of in front of) Johan would make for the true one‐two punch that we’ve been missing since the 80s (unless you count Al Leiter and Mike Hampton in 2000). It’d also likely be the best 1‐2 punch in baseball, second only perhaps to Lincecum and Cain in San Francisco.
Signing either Lackey or Harden, or trading for Doc, will correctly make Pelfrey #3 and Ollie #4, and leave the #5 spot open for John Maine, Jon Neise, Nelson Figueroa and others.
Recent developments suggest that free agent Jason Marquis wants to pitch in New York (if you don’t believe me, Jeff Francoeur will tell you). Marquis had a really solid year for Colorado (15‐13, 115 Ks, 4.04 ERA, 216 IP), but not a great second half. He’s a middle/back of the rotation guy, despite the fact that he’s been to the playoffs for the past 9 years with different teams. He’s also attractive because he’s an innings‐eater, but he’s going to be asking for a big contract coming off a career year. That, and we can get the same/more IPs by trading for Doc Halladay.
My biggest fear is that they try to trot out the same rotation as they did in 2009, but with a different #5. That’d be the very definition of insanity – doing the same thing over and over, and expecting different results. The 2009 rotation wasn’t good enough. The 2010 rotation must be better. MUCH BETTER.
Coming up next is STEP FOUR: Choose players that best fit that plan.
Fixing the Mets - STEP TWO
STEP TWO: Choose management that best fit that plan
Omar Minaya would be best suited elsewhere in the organization, where he never has to be involved in press conferences. He was a disaster in front of the press all year, with the low‐point being the Adam Rubin incident at the Tony Bernazard press conference. It’s been rumored that the Wilpons would’ve fired Omar had it not been for his contract ($3 million), but nothing’s been said about repurposing him. He should be in a behind-the‐scenes role, because he makes the franchise look dopey every time he opens his mouth. Truth be told, I think Omar has some very good qualities and instincts, and these attributes shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s a good hand, but not as the public face of the team’s management.
There are talks that John Ricco would be promoted to be the new GM. It doesn't even matter at this point. They should just hire an actor to memorize a script, but also has a background at improv so he can handle interviews. I frankly don't care who the "suits" are. I'm more concerned with the on‐field product, as we all should be.
The on‐field product starts with the manager. Is Jerry Manuel a guy that can get the most out of a team that's best trait is pitching and defense? I don't know if he is. If we look at the early part of this past season, coming out of the first spring training that Jerry ran, the Mets were sloppy and lacked fundamentals. The Mets didn't just start to suck after Delgado, Reyes, Putz, Beltran, etc. got hurt. They were mediocre in April and May, at full staff. That's on Jerry. No ifs, ands or buts about it. Not to defend him, though, I can’t understand how a group of PROFESSIONALS can make so many collective blunders.
And with that being said, I’m willing to give Jerry another chance in 2010. I cited the poor start to the season above, but I'd like to see what Jerry can do with a healthy team for a full 162 games. If he fails in 2010, and if the team plays as sloppily as it did in 2009, then Jerry's got to go. He clearly has his priorities for spring training in order – and it’ll be to address what appears to be a lack of concentration by his players both on the bases and in the field. Good luck with that one, Jerry. Frankly, he shouldn’t have to spend his time on something that these guys should’ve learned in Little League!
As an aside, I don't see how these managers and coaches and other executives get multi‐year deals. Starting in 2011, after Omar and Jerry are no longer under contract, the Wilpons should start signing all (non‐player) personnel to one‐year deals. This will allow them to move on without paying money to non‐factor people (like they did with Willie Randolph).
As for the rest of the coaching staff, Razor Shines cannot resume his duties as third base coach. How many Mets were thrown out at home plate this year? Or held up at third when they should've scored? Adios, Razor. Manny Acta is available, and although he'd probably prefer managing, he was our third base coach during the magical 2006 season...
UPDATE 10/18 – In an article for the New York Daily News, everybody’s favorite front office wannabe Adam Rubin writes that Acta “could return” as third‐base coach.
As far as the pitching staff is concerned, and as impressed as I was with what he did in the latter part of the 2008 season, Dan Warthen needs to be replaced. Anybody who watched the last two years would easily agree that Mike Pelfrey regressed in 2009. Warthen was praised for Big Pelf’s renaissance in 2008, and so he should also be blamed for just how horrible the 2009 staff was as a whole. Mets pitchers walked far too many batters this season, second only to The Nats. Even Santana was guilty there, letting up the most walks in any of his seasons in his Hall of Fame career. Bye bye, Danny Boy.
Warthen should be replaced with soon‐to‐be‐free‐agent Dave Duncan of St. Louis, who seems to be able to turn even the most average pitcher into a star. Look what he did with Braden Looper. And with Joel Piñeiro. And with Kyle Loshe. And with Adam Wainright. This is a no brainer as far as I'm concerned. And yet it won’t happen, because…
UPDATE, 10/5 – Dan Warthen will stay on as pitching coach in 2010. This just doesn’t make any sense to me. As far as I’m concerned, Jerry was 100% right in July and August, when he kept telling reporters “If we can pitch, we can win.” The problem was that we didn’t pitch very well. Big Pelf walked guys and balked them over, Ollie was Ollie, and as I said before, even Johan was walking guys (the opposing pitcher on 3 different occasions this year).
Perhaps someone can help me understand this one… What has Dan Warthen done to deserve to stick around?
As for other personnel changes, Luis Alicea was fired as first base coach – because he was clearly the problem with 2010. He just didn’t do a good enough job holding everyone’s protective armor and batting gloves when they reached base. (Anybody pick up any sarcasm there?)
Sandy Alomar Sr. will not be the bench coach in 2010, but will remain with the organization in some capacity. I think Sandy will end up in a prominent role in the player development area, and good for him because he’s earned it.
Razor Shines will remain on the staff, but will NOT be the third base coach in 2010. I think we can all breathe a sigh of relief. I suspect Razor will take over as bench coach, and I’m actually in favor of that move. Despite his inability to read plays as third base coach, his positive attitude and energy will be put to much better use in the dugout.
The bottom line is that 2010 is a do or die year for the Mets brass. If Omar’s off‐season moves aren’t winners, he’ll be shown the door. Same can be said if Jerry fails to get the team to play like pros. The ice will be thin for both of them, and if 2010 resembles 2009, I suspect both Omar and Jerry will be Willie Randolphed. (I wonder if the Mets will be making a trip to Anaheim in June?)
Coming up next is STEP THREE: Help Johan out!Fixing the Mets - STEP ONE
STEP ONE: Make a plan for the future and stick with it
2006 featured good pitching, excellent defense, a lot of power, great speed, timely hitting, a clutch bench, etc. Since then, we have been jacks of all trades, masters ofnone. There has been a little bit of each of these attributes, but never at the same timeand never at the right place.
Our pitching betrayed us in the 2006 post‐season (thanks a lot, Steve Trachsel) and thenagain down the stretch in 2007 (kudos Tom Glavine, Aaron Heilman and GuillermoMota). Billy Wagner's injury really shined the light on how shallow our 2008 bullpen was(Luis Ayala was our closer!). In all 3 seasons, our offense was way above average in mostcases, but more often than not, we couldn’t score when we needed to. 2009 wasabysmal, and had as much to do with the injuries as anything else. In the past 3 seasons,we did lots of little things right, but too many other things wrong.
That’s why starting in 2010, the team must define itself as something – Great Pitching and Defense? Contact and Speed? Power? I think the first option is the best bet. TheCitiField Mets should be built around pitching and defense, as their new home dictates.The Mets play 81 games there, and there's no arguing the fact that it's a pitcher's park.The roster should be constructed to take advantage of it.
Finding the right guys is a tall task on any given day, but will be even taller in 2010, when the team’s budget will be slashed. It's going to happen all across baseball, but it'll likelybe even more exaggerated with the Mets, thanks to Bernie Madoff. Someone reallyshould find out if that guy's secretly a Phillies fan. (UPDATE, 10/5 – Per their pressconference today, Jeff Wilpon and Omar Minaya stated that they would still have thehighest payroll in the NL. Whether that’s true remains to be seen.)
I’ll review who I believe to be the right guys are in another post, but for now, I’ll saythat regardless of the personnel, the most important piece for the future will be toSTICK TO THE PLAN!!
When Omar Minaya joined the Mets in 2005 he said he'd be building a team where pitching and defense were the top priority. Omar has never really made good on thatpromise, outside of 2006. He’s put together teams that have had a little bit ofeverything, and instead of picking one of those attributes and building upon it, Omarhas been all over the place.
If Omar was serious about pitching, how could he have been serious when he gave Ollie 3 years and $36 million?!?!? Other than stepping up in the 2006 post‐season andwinning 15 games in 2007, Ollie’s been a disaster. He will always be a guy with“tremendous upside,” but it’s going to take a Zen master (paging Phil Jackson) to unlockthe key to his potential. Rick Peterson caught lightning in a bottle in 2006/2007, butcouldn’t recapture it and neither could Dan Warthen. (More on Mr. Warthen in a bit.)
And defense? Come on… Moises Alou was our Opening Day LF for two consecutive seasons. A Gold Glover he is not. There are countless other examples, too, but these aretwo glaring ones. Omar’s biggest problem is that he seems to get blinded by the goodthings about players (Ollie’s “stuff,” the fact that Moises could hit the ball in his sleep,Julio Franco’s clutch year in 2006, etc.) and ignores the bad/obvious (Ollie sucks, Moisesis brittle, and Julio is old as dirt).
The henceforth plan is pitching and defense. Period. Omar should write it on an indexcard and carry it with him everywhere he goes. When he answers questions insubsequent press conferences, every answer should either be “Pitching and defense” orsome derivation of the phrase.
Coming up next is STEP TWO: Choose management that best fit that plan.
2006 featured good pitching, excellent defense, a lot of power, great speed, timely hitting, a clutch bench, etc. Since then, we have been jacks of all trades, masters ofnone. There has been a little bit of each of these attributes, but never at the same timeand never at the right place.
Our pitching betrayed us in the 2006 post‐season (thanks a lot, Steve Trachsel) and thenagain down the stretch in 2007 (kudos Tom Glavine, Aaron Heilman and GuillermoMota). Billy Wagner's injury really shined the light on how shallow our 2008 bullpen was(Luis Ayala was our closer!). In all 3 seasons, our offense was way above average in mostcases, but more often than not, we couldn’t score when we needed to. 2009 wasabysmal, and had as much to do with the injuries as anything else. In the past 3 seasons,we did lots of little things right, but too many other things wrong.
That’s why starting in 2010, the team must define itself as something – Great Pitching and Defense? Contact and Speed? Power? I think the first option is the best bet. TheCitiField Mets should be built around pitching and defense, as their new home dictates.The Mets play 81 games there, and there's no arguing the fact that it's a pitcher's park.The roster should be constructed to take advantage of it.
Finding the right guys is a tall task on any given day, but will be even taller in 2010, when the team’s budget will be slashed. It's going to happen all across baseball, but it'll likelybe even more exaggerated with the Mets, thanks to Bernie Madoff. Someone reallyshould find out if that guy's secretly a Phillies fan. (UPDATE, 10/5 – Per their pressconference today, Jeff Wilpon and Omar Minaya stated that they would still have thehighest payroll in the NL. Whether that’s true remains to be seen.)
I’ll review who I believe to be the right guys are in another post, but for now, I’ll saythat regardless of the personnel, the most important piece for the future will be toSTICK TO THE PLAN!!
When Omar Minaya joined the Mets in 2005 he said he'd be building a team where pitching and defense were the top priority. Omar has never really made good on thatpromise, outside of 2006. He’s put together teams that have had a little bit ofeverything, and instead of picking one of those attributes and building upon it, Omarhas been all over the place.
If Omar was serious about pitching, how could he have been serious when he gave Ollie 3 years and $36 million?!?!? Other than stepping up in the 2006 post‐season andwinning 15 games in 2007, Ollie’s been a disaster. He will always be a guy with“tremendous upside,” but it’s going to take a Zen master (paging Phil Jackson) to unlockthe key to his potential. Rick Peterson caught lightning in a bottle in 2006/2007, butcouldn’t recapture it and neither could Dan Warthen. (More on Mr. Warthen in a bit.)
And defense? Come on… Moises Alou was our Opening Day LF for two consecutive seasons. A Gold Glover he is not. There are countless other examples, too, but these aretwo glaring ones. Omar’s biggest problem is that he seems to get blinded by the goodthings about players (Ollie’s “stuff,” the fact that Moises could hit the ball in his sleep,Julio Franco’s clutch year in 2006, etc.) and ignores the bad/obvious (Ollie sucks, Moisesis brittle, and Julio is old as dirt).
The henceforth plan is pitching and defense. Period. Omar should write it on an indexcard and carry it with him everywhere he goes. When he answers questions insubsequent press conferences, every answer should either be “Pitching and defense” orsome derivation of the phrase.
Coming up next is STEP TWO: Choose management that best fit that plan.
Fixing the Mets - Introduction
I started writing this little diddy as a way to vent my frustration with our beloved Metropolitans. 2009 has been a difficult season for Mets fans, but what doesn't kill us only makes us stronger. Willie Randolph said something to that effect in September 2007 when he was questioned about the team's downward spiral. He said, and I’m paraphrasing, that these hardships will make the champagne taste sweeter when we do win. Unfortunately for Willie, he wasn't able to stick around long enough to taste that champagne.
But that's the advantage we have as fans. We can't be fired. Sure we can quit (Jen), but nobody can make us stop following and believing in The New York Mets. And as a result, what started as a few sentences quickly turned into a few paragraphs, which quickly turned into a few pages, dedicated to fixing the Mets!
Contrary to what Jayson Stark would have us believe, the future is not so bleak. Despite the injuries sustained this year, our core is still as solid as any other in baseball – Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Santana and now K‐Rod and Francoeur. Yes we have some holes to fill, but all Mr. Stark proved with his article is that he's a huge Phillies homer. I’m sure he and that traitor Tom McCarthy got a good chuckle out of what he wrote.
But I digress... The point of this "series" is that I believe we can be competitive for the next 2 years and then really make some strides when our minor league prospects are ready for the Bigs.
But that's the advantage we have as fans. We can't be fired. Sure we can quit (Jen), but nobody can make us stop following and believing in The New York Mets. And as a result, what started as a few sentences quickly turned into a few paragraphs, which quickly turned into a few pages, dedicated to fixing the Mets!
Contrary to what Jayson Stark would have us believe, the future is not so bleak. Despite the injuries sustained this year, our core is still as solid as any other in baseball – Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Santana and now K‐Rod and Francoeur. Yes we have some holes to fill, but all Mr. Stark proved with his article is that he's a huge Phillies homer. I’m sure he and that traitor Tom McCarthy got a good chuckle out of what he wrote.
But I digress... The point of this "series" is that I believe we can be competitive for the next 2 years and then really make some strides when our minor league prospects are ready for the Bigs.
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