Good teams – winning teams – have more than 1 good starter. Unfortunately, by that rationale, the Mets are not a good team right now. Johan Santana is the only good starter we have. As I’ve documented already, Mike Pelfrey took a huge step backwards in 2009, Ollie is what Ollie is, and John Maine really only has one full season under his belt (2007). Add to that the fact that we never really had a fifth starter going into the season (the fact that Livan Hernandez lasted more as long as he did in the rotation is amazing to me), and the end result is the mediocre rotation we had in ’09… filled with lots of spot starts and the occasional gem from one of the best pitchers in the game.
Johan signed a big contract with the Mets, but it was to HELP the team win a championship. It’s time somebody reminded the brass that in order for Johan to help, they need to help him. Like that line in Jerry Maguire… “Help me help you.”
I honestly thought fixing the bullpen would help Johan – after all, it was the ‘pen that cost him 7 more wins in 2008, and probably the Cy Young Award. That proved not to be the case. JJ Putz was a non‐factor due to injury, and K‐Rod turned out to be more human than any of us thought he'd be. (A thought on K‐Rod: The reports had always been that Frankie is a real competitor, and I wonder whether the Mets being out of contention had something to do with his poor performance in the second half? Just look at how dominant he was during the first half, when the Mets were right around 1st or 2nd place. The argument that he didn’t pitch often enough is a fraud, because he had only 3 fewer appearances than he did during his record‐setting 2008 campaign.)
I’ll give some credit where credit is due. The bullpen wasn’t all that bad in 2009, but iIt's time to help Johan out by adding another big name frontline starter to the rotation, and it should be somebody who is as dependable – and dominant – as he is.
Of the free agents, two catch my eye: John Lackey and Rich Harden.
Lackey was the ace in Anaheim for the past 2 years, but has struggled with injuries. In fact, he started 2009 on the DL. That said, though, he's 31 and is a full‐fledged free agent with solid numbers (11‐8, 139 Ks, 3.83 ERA, 176 IP) this year, although not as good as his 2007 numbers (19‐9, 179 Ks, 3.01 ERA, 33 games). The Angels recently acquired our old pal Scott Kazmir, which signifies to me that they don’t expect to resign Lackey. If the Mets were to sign him, he'd be a very solid #2 behind Johan. Also worth noting was his Game 2 performance against the Yanks in the ALCS. He took the loss, but he kept his team in the game and pitched very well despite his defense completely falling apart behind him.
Harden would make another solid #2. Although more injury‐prone than Lackey, he had a pretty good year with The Cubs (9‐9, 171 Ks, 4.09 ERA, 141 IP). Last year, mixed between Oakland and Chicago, he was positively fantastic (10‐2, 181 Ks, 2.07 ERA, 148 IP). The problem with Harden is his injury history, as the most IPs he's had in a season was 189 in 2004. Still, he's only 28 years old and might be an inexpensive signee.
If we bypass the free agents, there’s really only one guy we should be trying to trade for, and he’s a licensed doctor. Arguably the most durable starting pitcher of our generation, Roy Halladay has been a force in the perennially‐difficult AL East. His career numbers don’t lie:
- 2002: 19‐7, 168 Ks, 2.93 ERA, 239.1 IP, 2 CG
- 2003: 22‐7, 204 Ks, 3.25 ERA, 266 IP, 9 CG
- 2006: 16‐5, 132 Ks, 3.19 ERA, 220 IP, 4 CG
- 2007: 16‐7, 139 Ks, 3.71 ERA, 225.1 IP, 7 CG
- 2008: 20‐11, 206 Ks, 2.78 ERA, 246 IP, 9 CG
- 2009: 17‐10, 208 Ks, 2.79 ERA, 239 IP, 9 CG
That’s right. 9 CG in 2009… 7 more than THE ENTIRE METS PITCHING STAFF combined! Doc is a friggin’ machine, and having him as a Met behind (of in front of) Johan would make for the true one‐two punch that we’ve been missing since the 80s (unless you count Al Leiter and Mike Hampton in 2000). It’d also likely be the best 1‐2 punch in baseball, second only perhaps to Lincecum and Cain in San Francisco.
Signing either Lackey or Harden, or trading for Doc, will correctly make Pelfrey #3 and Ollie #4, and leave the #5 spot open for John Maine, Jon Neise, Nelson Figueroa and others.
Recent developments suggest that free agent Jason Marquis wants to pitch in New York (if you don’t believe me, Jeff Francoeur will tell you). Marquis had a really solid year for Colorado (15‐13, 115 Ks, 4.04 ERA, 216 IP), but not a great second half. He’s a middle/back of the rotation guy, despite the fact that he’s been to the playoffs for the past 9 years with different teams. He’s also attractive because he’s an innings‐eater, but he’s going to be asking for a big contract coming off a career year. That, and we can get the same/more IPs by trading for Doc Halladay.
My biggest fear is that they try to trot out the same rotation as they did in 2009, but with a different #5. That’d be the very definition of insanity – doing the same thing over and over, and expecting different results. The 2009 rotation wasn’t good enough. The 2010 rotation must be better. MUCH BETTER.
Coming up next is STEP FOUR: Choose players that best fit that plan.
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